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4 Things to Expect From Afghan President Ghani’s Trip to the U.S.

Michael Kugelman

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani arrives in the United States this week with a full agenda: meetings with President Barack Obama, discussions with U.S. officials at Camp David, an address to Congress, and a trip to the United Nations. Here are four things to expect from his visit.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani arrives in the United States this week with a full agenda: meetings with President Barack Obama, discussions with U.S. officials at Camp David, an address to Congress, and a trip to the United Nations.

Here are four things to expect from President Ghani’s visit:

1. Smiles galore. Mr. Ghani, who has been in office for six months, will be warmly received by his U.S. hosts. This is partly because he has done things that have pleased Washington—such as immediately signing an agreement that allowed some U.S. forces to remain in Afghanistan this year–but mainly because he is not Hamid Karzai. Toward the end of Mr. Karzai’s presidency U.S.-Afghan relations were toxic, and the Obama administration is glad to have a fresh start.

2. Substantive progress on issues. We can expect two major announcements. One—foreshadowed by recent suggestions that two large American military bases will remain open in Afghanistan next year—is to slow the pace of the U.S. troop drawdown. Instead of reducing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to 5,500 next year, many of the 9,800 there are likely remain in 2016. The second announcement relates to U.S.-Afghan economic relations, which are reportedly being revised to improve the effectiveness of U.S. aid delivery and accountability. The U.S. has a sizable role in helping to meet Afghanistan’s deep economic needs. Any announcement about troops numbers would hog the headlines, but economic developments would be equally important.

3. Not enough talk about Iran. Afghanistan stands to benefit from a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran, partly because it would create opportunities for cooperation in a country where Washington and Tehran share an interest in stability. Washington views deeper regional integration as key to Afghanistan’s economic development and stability. Iran is building a port–with Indian assistance–in Chabahar, a city in southern Iran. Once completed, that port is expected to greatly facilitate trade to and from Afghanistan and Central Asia—and more than triple Afghan trade volume with some neighbors, according to Afghan estimates. Washington may prefer not to admit it, but Iran’s role in Afghanistan can be helpful.

4. A little too much optimism. Expect to hear praise for the Afghan president’s recent push for reconciliation talks with the Taliban and his efforts to improve relations with Pakistan. Success with either could contribute immensely to stabilizing Afghanistan. Still, the Taliban has yet to commit to talks, and key factions in Afghanistan’s political class are pushing back. Meanwhile, despite real progress in Afghan-Pakistan relations—including joint pledges to crack down on cross-border terrorism—mutual mistrust remains considerable. Many Afghans believe that Pakistani intelligence continues to support the Afghan Taliban insurgency.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author.

This article was originally published in the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire.

About the Author

Michael Kugelman

Michael Kugelman

Director, South Asia Institute
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Asia Program

The Asia Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the world’s most populous and economically dynamic region.   Read more