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Brazil in 2013: Can Rousseff rise to the occasion?

Paulo Sotero

The director of the Brazil Institute writes a piece for CNN's GPS blog on Brazil's 2013 outlook and the challenges facing President Dilma Rousseff's administration.

Brazil in 2013: Can Rousseff rise to the occasion?

This is the first in a series of entries looking at what we can expect in 2013. Each weekday, a guest analyst will look at the key challenges facing a selected country – and what next year might hold in store.

In her first two years as Brazil’s first female president, Dilma Rousseff did the improbable. A neophyte in elective politics seen by many as a mere extension of her revered predecessor and mentor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Rousseff is today more popular at home than her creator. Remarkably, she gained the trust of the Brazilian people while her economic team and policies lost investors’ confidence – GDP growth moved in the opposite direction of her approval rating, shrinking from 7.5 percent in 2010 to 2.7 percent in 2011, and somewhere around 1 percent this year.

Now Rousseff faces the impossible. She has vowed to accelerate growth to 4 percent in the coming year while insisting on the same set of policies that produced the disappointing results of the recent past, made evident by the announcement in late November of a paltry 0.6 percent of GDP expansion in the third quarter, way below government and market expectations. Experts are divided on whether the bad news will make her change course. There is little disagreement, however, that 2013 will be Rousseff’s moment of truth.

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Picture courtesy of Blog do Planalto

About the Author

Paulo Sotero

Paulo Sotero

Distinguished Fellow, Brazil Institute
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Brazil Institute

The Brazil Institute—the only country-specific policy institution focused on Brazil in Washington—works to foster understanding of Brazil’s complex reality and to support more consequential relations between Brazilian and U.S. institutions in all sectors. The Brazil Institute plays this role by producing independent research and programs that bridge the gap between scholarship and policy, and by serving as a crossroads for leading policymakers, scholars and private sector representatives who are committed to addressing Brazil’s challenges and opportunities.  Read more