Skip to main content
Support
Article

Royal Shakeup Could Strain US-Saudi Relations

King Salman of Saudi Arabia announced changes in the line of succession on April 29, which could lead to new tensions in U.S.-Saudi relations. In the latest edition of the Wilson Center Middle East Program’s Viewpoints series, David Ottaway describes how a new wave of “Saudi hawks” are opposed to U.S. engagement with Iran and are asserting their military power against Tehran’s allies in Yemen.

King Salman of Saudi Arabia announced changes in the line of succession on April 29, which could lead to new tensions in U.S.-Saudi relations. In the latest edition of the Wilson Center Middle East Program’s Viewpoints series, David Ottaway describes how a new wave of “Saudi hawks” are opposed to U.S. engagement with Iran and are asserting their military power against Tehran’s allies in Yemen. The following is an excerpt of Ottaway’s article.

The Obama administration should be delighted with the changes in the line of succession announced April 29 by King Salman of Saudi Arabia. He has named Washington’s favorite royal the new crown prince and elevated his ambassador to Washington to foreign minister. Relations should become closer than ever. Paradoxically, this may prove not to be the case. Saudi Arabia and the United States are on a collision course in their policies simultaneously toward war in Yemen and peace with Iran.

Both the newly designated crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, and foreign minister, Adel alJubeir, belong to a new breed of “Saudi hawks” coming to power. They are strong advocates of asserting Saudi military power into the Yemeni civil war and standing up to Iran, the kingdom’s chief rival for regional hegemony. They feel Iran is to blame for the Houthis’ seizure of power in Yemen, which they regard as preeminent in the Saudi sphere of influence. They also fear that the inevitable outcome of a U.S.-Iranian nuclear deal will be a new American “tilt” toward Tehran at Saudi expense.

The Obama administration, on the other hand, is pressing the Saudis to get into negotiations quickly with the Iranian-backed Houthis and their allies, who still control the Yemeni capital of Sana’a and most of the country, and are thus likely to prevail at this point in any political settlement. President Obama has also invited the six monarchs of the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council to Washington and Camp David May 13-14 to try to sell them on the benefits of a nuclear agreement and U.S. reconciliation with Iran.

The latest changes in the royal succession line have consolidated the hold of Saudi hawks over foreign policy led by the new crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, and his deputy, Mohammed bin Salman. The two are known as the “Two Mohammeds” or “MBN and MBS” to distinguish them. Most remarkable is that King Salman has given enormous power to his son, Mohammed bin Salman, who is only 29 years old and has little experience in wielding power, the normal prerequisite together with age for entering the succession line. With little experience in military affairs, he nonetheless is the defense minister and the king’s chief military adviser, and has now been appointed deputy crown prince.

Far more expected was King Salman’s naming as his immediate successor Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef, who is credited with crushing al-Qaeda inside the kingdom and nearly lost his life to one of its suicide bombers in 2009. Washington has been treating him as its favored heir apparent ever since he became interior minister in 2012, rolling out the red carpet and granting access to its highest officials whenever he visits.

Click here to read the full article

Related Program

The Islamists

Learn more about Hamas and how it relates to similarly aligned organizations throughout the region.   Read more