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Jordan and the Challenges of Confronting ISIS Next Door

On July 14, a conversation took place on the internal developments in Jordan since the onset of the Arab Spring. Panelists addressed how the civil war in Syria and the rise of ISIS has affected Jordan. They also discussed Jordan’s policy options and the prospect of a buffer zone.

Date & Time

Tuesday
Jul. 14, 2015
9:00am – 10:00am ET

Location

5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center
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Overview

Two experts discussed internal developments in Jordan since the onset of the Arab uprisings, with a focus on responses to the civil war in Syria, the impact of the rise of ISIS, and the growing refugee crisis.

On July 14, 2015, the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted the event “Jordan and the Challenges of Confronting ISIS Next Door” with Anja Wehler-Schoeck, Resident Director, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Jordan and Iraq; and David Schenker, the Aufzien Fellow and Director of the Program on Arab Politics, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, moderated the event.

Wehler-Schoeck began with a short history of Jordanian policy and the civilian response to the Arab uprisings. Citizens in Jordan saw what happened to their regional neighbors after the Arab uprisings and prioritized stability over demands for reform. Since the rise of ISIS in 2013, national security has dominated Jordan’s regional policies. Criticism of U.S. policy in Iraq led some Jordanians to be skeptical of the government’s decision to join the U.S. coalition against ISIS in September 2014. After ISIS executed Muath Al-Kasasbeh, a Jordanian pilot, support shifted in favor of the Jordanian government.

Wehler-Schoeck argued that the rise of ISIS and the civil war in Syria aggravated many pre-existing problems, including an increase in the number of refugees and a weakening economy from the loss of commercial transfer routes. She also mentioned there are an estimated 2,000 Jordanian fighters in Iraq and Syria. Going forward, Wehler-Schoeck believes that Jordan has the strong allies and powerful security apparatus necessary to confront external threats. However, she recognizes the potential for radicalization in Jordan caused by a weak economy, few opportunities for youth, and a search for Sunni religious identity.

Schenker argued that Jordan has been relatively stable compared to its regional neighbors and stated that both the IMF and the World Bank are optimistic about Jordan’s economic prospects. Schenker believes that Jordan is often taken for granted because of its stability. He agreed with Wehler-Schoeck’s assessment of civilian opposition to the coalition with the United States, emphasizing the belief among some Jordanians that al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, and ISIS were all organizations that have pushed back against attacks on Sunnis by the Assad regime in Syria. Schenker noted that Jordan’s external borders are relatively stable, because the Jordanian military is well-organized and secure and is assisted by almost $1 billion in support from the United States. He also stated that tacit support for ISIS within Jordan may be a product of dissatisfaction with the Jordanian government. Schenker emphasized the risk of an attack perpetrated by the Assad regime in southern Syria, because it could increase the refugee crisis in Jordan. Overall, however, the fear in Jordan is not with ISIS’s territorial expansion but the risk of ISIS’s ideology traversing its borders.

During the question and answer portion of the event, an audience member asked about differences in radicalization between the Palestinian and tribal populations in Jordan. Schenker said there are both Palestinians in al-Nusra and a number of tribal members joining jihad in Syria. Wehler-Schoeck highlighted the ways in which support for ISIS within Jordan may be a means of stating dissatisfaction with the Jordanian government rather than actively supporting terrorism. In response to a question about the impact of water, electricity, and food supplies on radicalization, Schenker mentioned that Jordan is receiving assistance from Israel to solve its water shortage and that long-term unemployment is the greater concern. Wehler-Schoeck discussed the potential for labor reform in Jordan to allow Syrian refugees to enter the formal labor sector. Schenker also mentioned rising concerns that there are too many college graduates in Jordan without jobs, which could also increase the potential for radicalization.

By Sara Morell, Middle East Program

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Middle East Program

The Wilson Center’s Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.  Read more

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