Post-Soviet Integration Processes in the Caucasus and their Security Implications

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Leila Alieva, President, Centre for National and International Studies, Baku, and former Regional Exchange Scholar, Kennan Institute, discussed the integration of the three Caucasus states—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—into international and regional institutions. Alieva argued that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, integration patterns in the Caucasus have been primarily a reflection of the security environment. In the long term, she believes that the development of cultural factors and political institutions in these three states will come to have a greater impact on the nature and direction of their relationships with other states.

In the early post-Soviet period, Alieva said, leaders of the Caucasus were interested in cooperating with other states as a means of promoting security and building the national identity of their states. Russia and Iran could not provide either security or identity, she argued, except in some degree to Armenia. This left the Caucasus, and Georgia and Azerbaijan in particular, most interested in the West. However, according to Alieva, the Caucasus were caught between their strong sense of European identity and their location on the periphery of Europe, and Western countries were not interested in integration. Some degree of integration, both within the region and with Western countries, did occur, but on a very small scale, she argued.

According to Alieva, this limited integration has affected both the regional security environment and the nature of the regimes in the Caucasus states. Although Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have all become stronger and more secure in the 15 years since the Soviet collapse, Alieva argued, the benefits of this strength and security have gone to elites, thus alienating them from society at large. She contended that the current situation in the Caucasus has several important security implications: the "frozen" ethnic conflicts in the region are not being resolved because elites have no interest in resolving them; citizens are increasingly threatened by state violence; suppression of moderate opposition in the name of stability may lead to the rise of extremist opposition, including Islamic extremists; the inconsistency of Western words and actions in the region has alienated reform-minded actors; and high levels of corruption increase the potential for security breaches.

Alieva argued that there have been a number of "bottom-up" attempts at regional cooperation in the Caucasus. At the state level, the alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova (GUAM), has been the most notable attempt. According to Alieva, state-level cooperation has occurred mostly between Georgia and Azerbaijan, because they have similar security concerns. However, members of oppositions parties in all three states have been actively involved in promoting cross-regional dialogue and cooperation, she said. Alieva praised these local initiatives, but emphasized that the success or failure of Western countries in transmitting liberal values to the region and in serving as a neutral broker in regional conflicts will remain key in determining future security challenges and the direction of integration for the Caucasus states.