With Strategic Partners Like This, Who Needs Enemies? Russia Considers the 'Threat' from China

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Matthew Ouimet, Foreign Affairs Research Analyst, Office of Analysis for Russia and Eurasia, U.S. Department of State, and former Title VIII-Supported Research Scholar, Kennan Institute, argued that Russia is likely to try and maintain cooperative relations with China for the foreseeable future, despite concerns that China represents a demographic threat to the Russian Federation.

Ouimet argued that Russians have seen China as a threat to Russia's demographic and political control of Siberia and the Far East for over a century. In his view, Russian fears are based on the logic that Russia's under-populated and resource-rich eastern regions will be an irresistible draw to the millions of impoverished and unemployed Chinese living in nearby northern China. In the post-Soviet era, many Russians have claimed that if Russia cannot prevent mass immigration, China will be able to annex the Russia's eastern regions.

Despite this tendency to view China as Russia's natural enemy, Russian leaders also have several reasons to see China as a valuable strategic partner. Russia and China have similar opinions on many international issues, according to Ouimet. He argued that many Russian leaders, especially at the beginning of the post-Soviet period, felt that Russia must either align itself with the West or with China. Russian policymakers and analysts were divided between pro-Chinese and anti-Chinese factions. Ouimet added that the Defense Ministry and the military-industrial complex were always in favor of strong economic ties with China because they saw the Chinese market as vital to Russian military exports and the continuation of Russia's defense industry.

Ouimet contended that divided opinion led Russia to send mixed signals to China during the Yeltsin era. When Vladimir Putin became president in 2000, he originally adopted a policy of cooperation with China. Ouimet noted that he downplayed the threat of Chinese immigration and treated the demographic decline in the Russian Far East as a domestic problem. However, in the aftermath of September 11, 2001, Putin turned his attention to the West. According to Ouimet, this sparked extensive public debate in Russia between supporters of a pro-Western policy who saw China as a threat, and supporters of an anti-Western policy who saw China as a natural ally. The Kremlin remained silent in this debate for nearly a year. In July 2002 Putin seemed to side with the West by failing to even mention China in a speech on Russia's diplomatic priorities, but he soon after returned to his original policy of active cooperation with China.

Ouimet concluded by noting that even while Russia debated whether China was its natural ally or natural enemy, its policy toward China changed very little. He argued that Russian leaders have been pragmatic about needing good relations with such a large neighbor, and that trade with China is too valuable to reject. Sore spots remain in the Sino-Russian relationship—particularly regarding the demographic threat and some border disputes—but Ouimet predicted continued cooperation between China and Russia.