The Outlook of Brazil's October Elections by the Country's Leading Pollster
The first opinion poll conducted since the conclusion of the World Cup, released by Datafolha on July 17th, showed that public attitudes reverted to negative, where they had been before the tournament started surrounded by controversy about its cost and organizational aspects. According to the survey, the proportion of those who say the event brought more costs than benefits to the nation grew from 46% to 54% since July 1st, while the percentage of voters who hold the opposite view dropped nine points, from 45% to 36%, and is now where it was before the games started.
With economic indicators worsening more than expected, the poll also indicated that the upcoming presidential election has become harder to predict. President Dilma Rousseff, who is running for reelection, remains favored to win on October 5th. For the first time, however, she appears in a technical tie in a simulation of a second round of voting with her main rival, senator and former governor Aécio Neves, from the state of Minas Gerais. The two top vote gatherers will face off on October 26 if Rousseff does not get an absolute majority (or more than the sum of the votes of her challengers) in the first round.
On July 29, sociologist Mauro Paulino, director of Datafolha and Brazil's leading pollster will offer his assessment of the prospects for the leading candidates and issues that will influence the choices of the more than 140 million voters expected at the polls in the seventh presidential and general election since the reinstatement of democracy in 1985. Award-winning journalist and Wilson Center Global Scholar Carlos Eduardo Lins da Silva will serve as discussant, speaking from São Paulo, along with Paulino, via Google Hangout. The discussion will be carried in Portuguese and English, with simultaneous interpretation.