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Ukraine's Foreign Policy since the Orange Revolution

Volodymyr Dubovyk, Director, Center for International Studies and Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Odesa National Unviersity; and former Regional Exchange Scholar, Kennan Institute

Date & Time

Monday
Dec. 19, 2005
10:00am – 11:00am ET

Overview

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Volodymyr Dubovyk, Director of the Center for International Studies and Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Odesa National University, and former Regional Exchange Scholar at the Kennan Institute, stated that Ukraine's Orange Revolution leaders have not lived up to their promises on foreign policy. He argued that it is time to think about the direction that Ukraine is taking in its foreign policy, and stated that failures in its foreign policy have stemmed not from a lack of consensus, but a lack of coherence. While consensus around foreign policy issues has never been an historic prerequisite for national policy, Dubovyk said, the divisions voiced at the top levels of Ukraine's government have created a stalemate. More seriously, the lack of coherence in Ukraine's foreign policy has had an even worse impact on Ukraine's international image. As a result, Ukraine has wasted of the window of opportunity created by the Orange Revolution for gaining acceptance by the West and better defining its relationship with Russia.

Dubovyk expressed frustration with the Yushchenko administration's counterproductive policies, such as re-privatization, as well as its failure to live up to campaign promises, such as confronting corruption. According to Dubovyk, Ukraine has wasted a year in building relations with the European Union while "circumstances were favorable for an upgrade and a more sophisticated mode of cooperation." Ukraine has made greater progress in its relationship with NATO, in spite of weak domestic popular support. Dubovyk credited Minister of Foreign Affairs Borys Tarasiuk with this success. Ukraine still needs to conduct a "soft propaganda" campaign on the benefits of closer relations with NATO and the EU, stated Dubovyk, to defeat an old stereotype that growing closer to the West is tantamount to an anti-Russian policy. Dubovyk remarked that he is a proponent of Ukraine's multi-vector foreign policy, but that priorities need to be marked, beginning with building a closer relationship with Europe.

Other regional organizations that Ukraine was involved with are too poorly defined to show much promise at the moment. Dubovyk stated that GUAM (the alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) is a weak coalition because it is based on promoting politics of oil transit pipelines, rather than on shared strategies or ideology. The nascent international initiative of Ukraine and Georgia, the Community of Democratic Choice, is premised on values and principals, but is still conceptual. Dubovyk continued that regional politics have also damaged Ukraine's authority in foreign policy. The Transdniester conflict in neighboring Moldova has created the potential for a breakthrough for Ukrainian diplomacy, but this opportunity has been undermined by individuals in Ukraine's government, whom Dubovyk asserts are overly influenced by Russian concerns.

In his concluding remarks, Dubovyk stated reform will not happen as quickly as is desired, since civil society has not yet gained the strength necessary to provide a democratic check on government and officials have remained suspicious of civil society organizations. However, Dubovyk emphasized that the Orange Revolution and the resulting shift in Ukrainian society is genuine and that foreign policy should reflect the corresponding shift in values.

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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more

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