Tensions Escalate on Pakistan-Afghanistan Border

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Pakistan carries out cross-border strikes in Afghanistan after an attack on a Pakistani military post, India officially sets dates for its national election beginning next month, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Bhutan.

Pakistan Carries Out Strikes in Afghanistan

On Monday, Pakistan announced that security forces conducted anti-terrorism operations against militants based in Afghanistan that morning. The strikes came on the heels of an attack at a military post in North Waziristan, Pakistan, that killed seven soldiers. It is the latest of many assaults against Pakistani soldiers and police in the last few years, most of them perpetrated by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is closely allied with the Afghan Taliban.

Taliban officials, who have long denied that militants stage cross-border attacks from Afghan soil, condemned the Pakistani strikes and rejected the claim that the operations targeted terrorists, accusing Islamabad of killing civilians, including children. (In brief comments about the crisis, the Biden administration also said that the strikes killed civilians.) The Taliban said they retaliated with their own strikes against Pakistani troop locations.

These new developments are not surprising, given recent events. The TTP has ramped up attacks in Pakistan in the last two years, emboldened by the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul. Pakistan has tried many things to stop the attacks: talks with the TTP, domestic counterterrorism operations, a border fence, and pressure tactics including the expulsion of thousands of Afghan refugees. Nothing has worked.

Unlike Pakistan’s brief cross-border crisis with Iran in January, the situation on the border with Afghanistan won’t fade away. The new government in Islamabad, already struggling with severe economic stress and public anger about the controversial Feb. 8 election, must now grapple with a crisis it can’t afford.

Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, who has held office since November 2022, has taken a tough public stance against Afghanistan, going as far as saying that “when it comes to the safety and security of every single Pakistani, the whole of Afghanistan can be damned.” As the most powerful figure in Pakistan, Munir would have signed off on the strikes.

Pakistan may hope its cross-border operations will restore a semblance of deterrence, freeing up policy space to focus on other concerns, such as the economy. But it’s not that simple. Although Pakistan has staged counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan in the past, the weekend strikes were unusually large in scale, targeting two provinces, suggesting a level of escalation that will be difficult to dial down. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan confirmed the strikes on Monday, raising the domestic political costs of backing down.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban, its longtime ally, have been fraught for months. Since 2021, the group hasn’t needed the wartime support it once received from Pakistan, depriving Islamabad of leverage. Festering disagreements have come to the fore, including over the border itself. The Taliban regime, like previous Afghan ruling entities, doesn’t recognize the border with Pakistan, and Taliban fighters have clashed with Pakistani soldiers putting up border fencing.

As a result, Pakistan can’t assume that dialogue will defuse tensions, as it did during the crisis with Iran. Pakistan also doesn’t have the luxury of a truce with Afghanistan, as it has had with India along their disputed border since 2021. Since seizing power, the Taliban have warned that they will not tolerate any foreign military operation on Afghan soil. The border has been relatively calm in the days since the Pakistani strikes, but the recent escalations were too major to expect that the crisis will end as quickly as it started.

The best-case scenario is that relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan remain highly tense, while the worst-case scenario is that the Taliban support or stage more attacks on Pakistani military targets. There is an irony here. During the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, Taliban militants used Pakistan as a base to stage attacks in Afghanistan. Then, Afghanistan counted on operational support from NATO forces, but now Pakistan must wage its battle alone.

What We’re Following

India releases election dates. India’s election commission has announced that the national polls will run from April 19 to June 1. Because of the country’s large size—nearly 1 billion people are registered voters—it usually holds elections over several weeks. Although India is often praised for its efficient execution, there is some controversy this year about the election environment.

Opposition parties have alleged that India’s electronic voting machines are vulnerable to hacking; last week, the Indian Supreme Court dismissed a petition that alleged irregularities in their use. The U.N. high commissioner for human rights has also expressed concern about the polls, warning earlier this month about “increasing restrictions on the civic space” and stressing the importance of an “open space that respects the meaningful participation of everyone.”

Meanwhile, changes to India’s election funding system, known as electoral bonds, have become another pre-election storyline. For seven years, Indian individuals and companies could send financial contributions to political parties anonymously with little oversight. In February, the Indian Supreme Court ruled this system unconstitutional, and earlier this week it ordered India’s state bank to share information about the donations.

The development could affect India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, for which nearly 50 percent of bonds were earmarked, according to initial data released this month. 

South Asia has the world’s worst air pollution. IQAir has released its annual global air quality ratings, and the news isn’t good for South Asia. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India are the world’s three worst air polluters, in that order, and the top four most polluted cities are all in India. The region has a perfect storm of factors driving serious air pollution: dense and growing cities, transport vehicles that run on dirty fuel, agricultural practices that entail burning excess wheat crops, and a lack of effective policies.

There may be some hope for the problem to ease in the coming years, with South Asian capitals—especially New Delhi—placing more emphasis on the need for energy transitions. India has arguably made the most progress of the three worst polluters: One recent initiative is a plan to make its transport sector less polluting by rolling out city buses that run on green hydrogen fuel cells, and it is scaling up its electronic vehicles sector.

U.S. investigates Adani. U.S. officials are reportedly investigating the business interests of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, who heads the Adani Group. The investigation is being led by a U.S. attorney’s office in New York and by the U.S. Justice Department’s fraud unit, which are looking into whether an Adani company or people tied to an Adani company have paid Indian officials in return for favorable treatment for an energy project.

The details of the probe remain sketchy; presumably it relates to activities connected to U.S. companies, investments, or markets. Last November, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced a $553 million investment in an Adani-sponsored port development project in Sri Lanka, but there is no indication that the investigation relates to that deal.

Regardless, the news is a reputational setback for Adani, who managed to survive serious fraud allegations against him last year with relatively little damage to his business interests. Adani has repeatedly denied those allegations, and this week the Adani Group rejected any involvement in bribery. The Justice Department has not made any charges against Adani or his companies.

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Under the Radar

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Bhutan later this week, where he is expected to sign deals on trade, energy, and infrastructure. The timing is notable: India’s national elections are less than a month away and Modi has focused his attention on campaigning.

However, one can understand India’s urgency in making the visit. Bhutan has traditionally had a deep partnership with India and is reliant on Indian assistance, but in recent years China has become more present in Bhutan. China became embroiled in a border crisis with Bhutan and India in 2017, but it has recently taken a softer approach, including steps to ease the dispute.

India has sought to push back against China, as it has elsewhere in South Asia. A few months ago, India and Bhutan announced new plans for connectivity cooperation, including a cross-border rail project. Modi’s visit is likely intended to underscore India’s commitment to partnership with Bhutan and to signal that he feels strongly enough to step off the campaign trail and convey the message in person.