"It [Russia] is facing a lower price for oil. It is confronting a rising Ruble. In a diverse economy, you could take advantage of such circumstances, but Russia doesn't have a diverse economy and it won't be able to," says Will Pomeranz.
Support for the annexation of Crimea is virtually universal with little understanding or appreciation that in so doing, Russia has violated international commitments and undone post- Cold War security structures in Europe. There is, however, no support for open warfare with Ukraine and young people are uneasy the current sanctions will jeopardize future career and job prospects.
The Ukraine crisis has come full circle. While images of revolution, war, annexation, and invasion remain fresh, it is important to remember that this upheaval actually began as a trade dispute. The EU and Ukraine wanted to increase trade via the association agreement, and Russia loudly objected, first with words and soon thereafter with guns. A shaky cease-fire is now in place, but any lasting solution to this crisis begins where it started, namely with trade.
After a decade in prison you look at time differently, says Mikhail Khodorkovsky. The former Russian oligarch, whom President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly pardoned in December, is visiting Washington this week, sharing his thoughts with people who knew him back in Moscow -- before prison, before his Yukos Oil Co. was dismantled, before he lost his estimated fortune of $15 billion.
"To understand voting in Russia, it helps to have a literary turn of mind, an appreciation of the Kafkaesque lengths to which the authorities will go to constrain the opposition," writes Jill Dougherty.
"Russians have come to depend on their belief in Putin as much as he depends on their support. Instead of serving as a source of stability, as it did in the past, this mutual dependence is driving Russia toward political and economic isolation – with serious consequences for ordinary Russians’ livelihoods," writes Maxim Trudolyubov.
"Obama needs to lay out in precise terms the conditions that could lead Washington to consider a change in its Russian sanctions policy. Otherwise, the EU may use Obama’s U.N. speech as an opportunity to reconsider its current sanctions — to the clear detriment of U.S. business and national security interests," writes Will Pomeranz.
"So what is Mr. Putin up to, my American friends and colleagues keep asking. He is, quite simply, bent on preserving and expanding his personal and Russia’s international power...the methodology in his playbook is constant and ruthless." writes Maxim Trudolyubov.
"I think what he feels is that this is a way for him to boost his domestic economy. He really feels that he can go it alone," says Jill Dougherty about Vladimir Putin's reaction to new western sanctions against Russia.
"By the time Ukraine’s leaders are ready to make the politically tough choices that could restore stability in the East, and achieve an understanding with Russia, they will be in a far worse bargaining position than when the Anti-Terrorist Operation began in June," writes Michael Kofman.
December 02, 2014 // 9:00am — 10:30am
December 05, 2014 // 9:00am — 10:30am
Experts & Staff
- Matthew Rojansky // Director, Kennan Institute
- William E. Pomeranz // Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
- F. Joseph Dresen // Program Associate
- Mary Elizabeth Malinkin // Program Associate
- Izabella Tabarovsky // Manager for Regional Engagement
- Mattison Brady // Program Assistant
- Blair A. Ruble // Vice President for Programs; Director, Urban Sustainability Laboratory; and Senior Advisor, Kennan Institute
- Kateryna Smagliy // Director, Kennan Institute in Ukraine
- Yaroslav Pylynskyi // Senior Advisor, Kennan Institute in Ukraine
- Nataliya Samozvanova // Office Manager, Kennan Institute in Ukraine