Тижнів за два тому одна з моїх колишніх студенток поцікавилась на ФБ: «Чи можна події 2014р. в Україні вважати революцією?» Я відповів, що швидше так ніж ні, але застеріг, що про революцію легше говорити не за фактом, а за наслідками. Якісь наслідки видно вже, якісь проявляться згодом, а тим часом варто уважніше поглянути на виразні ознаки революції і перевірити чи виявляють вони себе у теперішніх подіях і чи виявлялися вони у 2004 р.
"Ironically, by violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and threatening its borders, Putin has now done more to promote Ukrainian identity than any current national politician could have ever imagined," writes Will Pomeranz.
"Putin is angry, he's riled up. He wanted to demonstrate the fact that you cannot take the Russians for granted. And he moved into Crimea and there was nothing -- unless we were prepared to go to war and risk a nuclear standoff or confrontation with the Russians -- that we could really do about it," Aaron David Miller said on Fox News.
"Vladimir Putin doesn't know the Colin Powell rule -- if you break it you own it. And if he breaks up Crimea, he's going to own their pension liabilities, their tanked economy, at a time when the Russian economy is stretched," Harman said.
"It was clear to Putin from the beginning that this was going to be a line-crossing maneuver. As soon as he occupied Crimea, as soon as he sought to trigger and deepen the divisions that we see within Ukrainian society in order to effectively undermine the sovereignty of this new government in Ukraine, he was declaring that all bets were off," Matthew Rojansky said on The Diane Rehm Show.
"What's happened in Crimea is not an immediate reaction to human rights violations or a structured vote on a referendum but a very hurried operation that is currently being conducted while it's being occupied militarily," Will Pomeranz said on C-SPAN's Washington Journal.
Here are several things about the recent coverage and discussion on Ukraine that even my lack of expertise won't allow me to accept, writes Aaron David Miller.
"If we seek to freeze the assets of Russian companies, if we seek to block their ability to import or export, the Russians have already made it clear that they will respond in kind and they may even respond disproportionately as they have in the past, and that's going to hurt American companies," Matthew Rojansky said on NPR's "All Things Considered."
William Pomeranz discussed Russian aggression against Ukraine on Bloomberg TV's "Street Smart" with Bloomberg Contributing Editor Richard Falkenrath. "Putin has made a political and military calculation and he believes that in the short term, he can handle these sorts of economic declines," Pomeranz said.
Changing Russian policy is doable if the U.S. is careful and adroit, but we need to accept some realities and work around them, writes Jane Harman.
June 01, 2015 // 3:30pm — 4:30pm
June 11, 2015 // 4:00pm — 5:30pm
Experts & Staff
- Matthew Rojansky // Director, Kennan Institute
- William E. Pomeranz // Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
- F. Joseph Dresen // Program Associate
- Mary Elizabeth Malinkin // Program Associate
- Izabella Tabarovsky // Manager for Regional Engagement
- Mattison Brady // Program Assistant
- Emma Dorst // Program Assistant
- Blair A. Ruble // Vice President for Programs; Director, Urban Sustainability Laboratory; and Senior Advisor, Kennan Institute
- Kateryna Smagliy // Director, Kennan Institute in Ukraine
- Nina Rozhanovskaya // Coordinator and Academic Liaison in Russia