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By Dinorah Azpuru, Demetrio Cojtí Cuxil, Carroll Ríos de Rodríguez, Bernardo Arévalo de León, and Edelberto Torres-Rivas

From the Table of Contents

Introduction and Executive Summary
Cynthia J. Arnson

The Consulta Popular: A Vote Divided by Geography
Dinorah Azpuru

The Impact of the Popular Referendum on Compliance with the Indigenous Accord and on Democratization in Guatemala
Demetrio Cojtí Cuxil

The Organized Productive Sector and the Consulta Popular
Carroll Ríos de Rodríguez

Demilitarization and Democracy: Implications of the Popular Referendum for the Agreement on the Strengthening of Civilian Power and the Role of the Army in a Democracy
Bernardo Arévalo de Leon

Peace and Democracy: An Unpredictable Future
Edelberto Torres-Rivas

Biographies of the Contributors

From the Preface

To followers of the Guatemalan peace process within Guatemala and in the international community, the results of the May 16, 1999 popular referendum (Consulta Popular) were both surprising and discouraging. Surprising because it would have seemed a foregone conclusion that Guatemalan voters would approve constitutional reforms deriving from the December 1996 Peace Accords; discouraging because the referendum, which represented the first opportunity for the Guatemalan public to express its views on the peace process, was overwhelmingly voted down. The future of the peace process was thus cast into doubt, just in advance of Guatemala's first post-war elections scheduled for November 7, 1999.

To explain and interpret the results and the impact of the Consulta, and speculate about the future of the peace process after a new government takes office in January 2000, the Latin American Program's Project on Comparative Peace Processes in Latin America asked several Guatemalan academics and policy analysts to address two basic questions: I) What best explains the "No" vote in the Consulta; and 2) What are the implications of those results for future progress in implementing the reforms embodied in the Peace Accords? These questions are of obvious importance to Guatemala, but also to other countries of the region seeking negotiated settlements of internal armed conflicts. In addition, given Guatemala's history, we paid special attention to the key questions of indigenous rights and demilitarization. Both of these issues received significant treatment in the peace agreement and are critical to Guatemala's ongoing process of democratic consolidation.

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