Asia Program

China's Economy: Will the Bubble Burst?

Charles Wolf Jr., Thomas G. Rawski, and Deborah S. Davis

The three essays in this Special Report discuss China’s economy from various perspectives. Charles Wolf Jr. of RAND challenges a generally prevailing consensus that China’s economy will be able to sustain high rates of economic growth by highlighting eight potential challenges China may encounter over the next decade.Thomas G. Rawski of the University of Pittsburgh argues that the Chinese government’s poor decisions on investment and bungled management of existing fixed assets will keep China on the current path of low growth, stagnant employment, and widespread over-capacity in the years to come. Deborah S. Davis of Yale University believes China’s “software advantage” in human resources will promote continued economic development. While these essays differ as to whether China’s economy will sustain high-speed growth in the years ahead, none of them predicts the country’s economy will soon collapse.

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