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Tunisia: Secular Opposition Rising

Tunisia’s secular opposition may be a major contender in presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for late 2013, according to a new paper by Marina Ottaway, a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Call of Tunisia, an alliance of secular political groups is competing for supporters. In April 2013, it was “running almost even” with the Islamist Ennahda party in public opinion polls.

            Tunisia’s secular opposition may be a major contender in presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for late 2013, according to a new paper by Marina Ottaway, a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Call of Tunisia, an alliance of secular political groups is competing for supporters. In April 2013, it was “running almost even” with the Islamist Ennahda party in public opinion polls. Yet up to 40 percent of Tunisians have not picked a party to support in the next elections, according to recent polls. Ennahda took 37 percent of the parliamentary vote in October 2011. It currently heads a coalition government with two secular parties. The following are excerpts from the paper published by the Middle East Program, followed by a link to the full text.

            Two years after the uprising that forced President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali into exile, Tunisians are slowly coming to grips with the reality of politics in a pluralist system where opposition is real and the outcome of political contestation is not predetermined. The process is slow and somewhat uncertain, and it would be premature to conclude that Tunisian politicians have fully embraced not only the concept of democracy but also its concrete implications. A recent visit, however, suggests that they are at least learning to play the political game, so far by the rules.

The Political Spectrum

            The political spectrum in Tunisia remains quite broad, with both a radical right, represented by Salafi groups and a fringe of Ennahda, and a radical left, represented by the small parties in the Popular Front, which still appear committed to classic communist positions. Each of the two extremes is deemed to have the support of about 10 percent of the population (estimates are most unreliable concerning Salafis, who are not organized in political parties competing for elections and are, thus, not included in public opinion surveys). In between the two extremes is a fluid, rather conservative or centrist segment of the population which does not appear strongly committed to any political party. At least two recent public opinion polls conducted on behalf of the Washington-based International Republican Institute and by 3C Etudes in Tunis conclude that about 40 percent of Tunisians still do not know for which party they will vote in the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

            The major contenders for the votes of those in the middle of the political spectrum are Ennahda  and a new political organization, Nida Tounes. Launched in June 2012, Nida Tounes is now running almost even with Ennahda in all public opinion polls. Both organizations, however, have internal problems, adding an additional element of uncertainty to the situation…

Beyond Politics

            Politics, as it unfolds in democratic countries, is taking roots in Tunisia, with all its positive and negative connotations. On the positive side, there seems to be broad acceptance that all political actors and points of view must be accepted; as a result, most of the secular opposition accepts Ennahda as a legitimate political party—Essebsi in particular goes out of his way to point out that the party has a right to exist even while he attacks it in his speeches. Ennahda is willing to accept both the extreme left and the Salafis, the latter much to the chagrin of the secular opposition. On the negative side, there often appears to be a lack of good will among contending parties, with unfounded or petty accusations being traded, but this lack of good faith does not seem to go beyond what is unfortunately normal in the politics of all countries.

            There is still some reluctance on all sides to accept the hard reality that the party that wins elections has more power, in fact is entitled to have more power, than those that lose. The reluctance, not surprisingly, is more evident at present in the stance of the opposition, which accuses Ennahda and the troika of monopolizing power because they control cabinet posts. If Ennahda does not win the plurality in the next elections, it may be its turn to express reservations about majority rule. As long as the political spectrum remains pluralistic and no party dominates, this reluctance will likely dissipate.

            This does not mean that the Tunisian transition is out of the danger zone and that democracy is bound to triumph. There is still a threat in Tunisia from the Salafi groups that have opted to remain outside the legal political process. It is difficult to gauge accurately how significant this threat really is. There are armed groups operating in the country, and given the situation in the region, they are probably linked to broader networks that go beyond the country’s border. And there is no reliable information about how many Tunisians embrace Salafi or jihadist positions—the commonly used estimate of 10 percent of the population is approximate at best, a guess at worst. And it is not clear how many of so-called Salafis are willing to engage in violence, rather than limiting themselves to a project of reforming the society through dawa, or Islamic proselytizing...

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