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Taiwan's Party Realignment and Its Impact on Washington-Taipei-Beijing Relations

June Teufel Dreyer, University of Miami;Yu-long Ling, Franklin College;John Copper, Rhodes College;Joseph Fewsmith, Woodrow Wilson Center Fellow

Date & Time

Tuesday
Oct. 4, 2005
3:30pm – 5:30pm ET

Overview

At an Asia Program event on October 4, four experts discussed recent developments in Taiwanese politics, and the impact on relations with Beijing and Washington. The panelists emphasized that Taiwanese politics are notoriously difficult to predict—Yu-Long Ling compared the situation to an ever-shifting kaleidoscope, and June Dreyer pointed out that Taiwanese politics always involve "a story behind a story behind a story."

Following the passage of a constitutional amendment, Taiwan will shift largely to a single-member ("first past the post") electoral system rather than proportional representation. According to conventional wisdom, such a system discourages small parties and promotes the merging of parties. Will this happen in Taiwan? John Copper contended that, at least to some extent, Taiwan's two largest parties—the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Party and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—will strengthen. However, small parties will not disappear, all the speakers agreed. Ling suggested that as large parties move toward the center, small parties will continue to attract voters with "extreme" views. Moreover (Ling contended), individual personalities will continue to play a big role. For example, James Soong of the People First Party (PFP), a KMT splinter group, will not care to "swallow his pride" to merge with the KMT. June Dreyer agreed, pointing out that while specific members may opt to abandon the PFP, Soong has spoken only of a "strategic alliance" with the KMT, not a merger. Meanwhile, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), a small party that advocates Taiwanese independence, will probably become even more militant as the DPP moves to attract more centrist voters, Dreyer argued.

Despite electoral changes, Taiwan's foreign relations with Beijing and Washington are unlikely to change much, suggested commentator Joseph Fewsmith. If anything, movement toward a "normal" and stable two-party system will likely re-enforce the status quo, thereby reflecting the views of the Taiwanese public. Beijing's situation—it can attack Taiwan, but cannot occupy it—remains unchanged. Washington, too, will likely continue to uphold the status quo, favoring neither unification nor independence. The Bush administration, which expressed support for Taiwan identity upon coming to office, has since rebuked the Chen administration for moving too far in the direction of supporting independence.

Ling and Copper offered summaries of Taiwanese political development. Ling pointed out that even during the period (prior to the mid-1980s) of KMT one-party rule, there were factions within the KMT that offered some form of political contestation. Copper reviewed how the tortured history of domestic Taiwanese politics interacted with cross-Strait relations, as well as U.S. relations with both Beijing and Taipei. He noted that the United States has keen interest in Taiwanese developments and has repeatedly intervened in Taiwanese political contests.

Drafted by Amy McCreedy Thernstrom, Asia Program Associate
Robert M. Hathaway, Director, Asia Program, Ph: (202) 691-4020

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Indo-Pacific Program

The Indo-Pacific Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on US interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the world’s most populous and economically dynamic region.   Read more

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