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Ukraine on the Eve of Presidential Elections

Gene Fishel, Senior Analyst, Office of Russian and Eurasian Analysis, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State

Date & Time

Tuesday
Oct. 12, 2004
12:00pm – 1:00pm ET

Overview

At a recent Kennan Institute talk, Gene Fishel, Senior Analyst, Office of Russian and Eurasian Analysis, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State, discussed the political situation in Ukraine as the country prepares for the first round of presidential elections on October 31 (there will likely be a second round held on November 21, and the new president will take office on December 13). Fishel argued that these elections will be very important for Ukraine's future, and warned that Ukraine appears to be heading away from democratic norms and integration with Europe.

According to Fishel, the political landscape in Ukraine today is different than it was in the previous presidential election. The two major candidates in the race are current prime minister Viktor Yanukovych—the chosen successor of President Leonid Kuchma—and democratic opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. He contrasted this to Ukraine's previous presidential election, where the primary opposition to the incumbent president came from the Communist Party rather than from a liberal party. Fishel argued that the choice between Yanukovych and Yushchenko is a choice between a continuation of "business as usual" and an opportunity to transform Ukraine into a modern, democratic society. For this reason, the results of the election will be very important, both for Ukraine and for the international community.

Independent polls have consistently shown that Yushchenko is the most popular candidate in the election, with Yanukovych trailing by a significant margin. However, Fishel warned that we will never know whether Yanukovych would have been able to beat Yushchenko in a fair election, because the people who are currently in power are desperate to keep Yushchenko out of the presidency. The campaign has already been marred by so much state interference that it cannot be considered free and fair, no matter how the election itself is carried out, according to Fishel. He cited numerous examples of actions by national, regional, and local officials to promote Yanukovych and discredit Yushchenko—removing pro-opposition programming from television and radio, setting district quotas for participation in Yanukovych rallies, denying Yushchenko supporters access to venues, and an alleged poisoning of Yushchenko that the candidate claims was a deliberate attempt to prevent him from campaigning at a critical time.

Fishel noted that there is a great deal of speculation within Ukraine that the election will not take place. Current president Kuchma has stated that he will step down after his second term, as mandated by Ukraine's constitution. According to Fishel, although Kuchma is not currently registered as a candidate, he has recently spoken about his lifelong commitment to serving Ukraine and made similar comments that might indicate his intention to hold on to power. In order to do this, Kuchma would have to call off the elections, declare the results invalid, or take other clearly undemocratic action, Fishel said.

According to Fishel, Kuchma hopes that Western countries will be "pragmatic" and go along with whatever course of action he chooses in order to maintain a good relationship with Ukraine. Fishel argued that if the elections are cancelled, or if Yanukovych wins by fraud, Ukraine will move off the path toward democracy and European integration for the foreseeable future. He believes that this would have negative consequences for both Ukraine and the West.

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Kennan Institute

The Kennan Institute is the premier US center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Kennan Institute is committed to improving American understanding of Russia, Ukraine, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the surrounding region though research and exchange.  Read more

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