Rubio Embarks on Diplomatic Mission to Central America

This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

So it's significant that the Secretary of State's first trip is to Latin America. That's almost unheard of in terms of prioritizing the Western Hemisphere. And he's traveling to several countries in Central America and the Caribbean. It's unclear what Secretary Rubio will be asking of the Panamanians. I mean, President Trump in his inaugural address stated pretty clearly that his objective is recovering control of the Panama Canal. If that's the message Secretary Rubio brings to Panama, I have to imagine he'll come back empty handed. If on the other hand, he's looking for cooperation on migration, some greater transparency regarding Chinese companies operating in the canal, it may be that there are some meaningful accomplishments that move the conversation forward. 

US policy in Latin America is always, at least in part, related to the competition with China. In places like Panama, it’s particularly sensitive. This is a country, of course, where the United States built and operated the Panama Canal, a country that broke ties with Taiwan just a few years ago and established ties with China. And where President Trump has expressed concern about the presence of Chinese companies operating ports on either side of the canal. It'll be interesting to see what the relationship is like with Guatemala. Under the Biden administration, Guatemala held an election, elected a reformist president who nearly could not take office given opposition from political and economic elites. Now, there are questions as to why the United States will continue to strongly support this reformist figure and his anti-corruption political party. 

The relationship with El Salvador is quite close politically right now. Under the last administration, the United States kept El Salvador at arm's length over concerns related to its crackdown on gangs, mass detentions, and broad considerations related to democracy and human rights. Now, it looks like the relationship will not have any of those tensions, and we'll see what that means for cooperation between the United States and El Salvador.

This is a really interesting moment for US relations with Latin America. As you can tell from the secretary's trip, the relationship in some ways is becoming even more intense and benefiting from greater attention from the white House and the State Department. On the other hand, there's a lot of tension at this moment. The nasty rotations that are expected or unwelcome in many countries in the region. Threats of tariffs against Mexico, threats of tariffs against Colombia have all raised questions about what the nature of inter American relations will be over the next four years, and we'll get some important signals from what Secretary Rubio says publicly and privately.