Transatlantic Relations Under New US and EU Leadership: EU’s Enlargement and Neighborhood

Commissioners overseeing the portfolio, or parts thereof: 

• Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission
• Marta Kos, Commissioner for Enlargement
• Dubravka Šuica, Commissioner for Mediterranean

The war in Ukraine has reshaped the EU's enlargement and neighborhood policy, emphasizing the geopolitical importance of engaging with its neighbors and bringing new momentum to enlargement. At her confirmation hearing for the role of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission (HRVP) Kaja Kallas stated “our neighbors’ problems today, are our problems tomorrow”. The new European Commission will therefore prioritize concrete actions to bring EU candidate countries closer to the Union as well as build comprehensive, mutually beneficial partnership with the (rest of) its Eastern and Southern neighborhood.

The new European Commission will face ongoing foreign policy challenges in this regard. The Western Balkan region remains fragile as the ongoing Serbia-Kosovo dispute and separatist tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia continue facing Russian aggression and malign interference. Meanwhile, enduring conflicts continue destabilizing the EU’s Southern neighborhood in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). However, these challenges also offer opportunities for transatlantic cooperation in ensuring stability and safeguarding democracy in these regions. 

In the new Commission, three Commissioners will be responsible to tackle these challenges and implement EU actions in its neighborhood. Kaja Kallas will serve as the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Marta Kos as Commissioner for Enlargement, and Dubravka Šuica as Commissioner for the Mediterranean—a new role announced by von der Leyen in her speech to the European Parliament when she bid to be reelected as President of the Commission. While only Šuica has prior experience as a Commissioner, Kallas was previously the Prime Minister of Estonia and one of the most prominent figures in Europe’s support for Ukraine, and Marta Kos served as Slovenia’s Ambassador to Germany, Switzerland, and Latvia. 

Not often do you see a female trio leading EU’s external engagement, especially after the initial difficulties faced by President Ursula von der Leyen to ensure gender parity in the Commission college. Based on the recent hearings in the European Parliament and the mission letters from President von der Leyen, Kallas, Kos, and Šuica will be the main counterparts when it comes to ensuring stability and prosperity in EU’s neighborhood. 

The EU will have the following priorities in this area: 

1. Moving further with EU enlargement: Currently there are nine candidate countries for EU membership. In the next five years the EU wants to achieve concrete progress in the accession process across all candidate countries. It aims to do so through targeted financial instruments—Ukraine Facility, worth €50 billion, the Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans worth €6 billion, and the recently proposed Growth Plan for Moldova, worth €1.8 billion—to incentivize candidate countries to pass the needed reforms for EU membership. 
   
   At her confirmation hearing, Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos announced ambitious goals for Montenegro and Albania to finish their accession negotiations by 2026 and 2027, respectively. This means they would be on track to officially join the Union by 2030—the last member state to join was Croatia in 2013. Integration of Ukraine will also be on top of EU’s agenda. Despite the ongoing war the country is, according to the latest progress report, slowly advancing in adopting the necessary reforms. The EU will try to keep up this reform momentum in Ukraine as well as in Moldova, where Moldovans recently approved the country’s strategic vision to pursue EU membership.
2. Support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”: Support for Ukraine remains a top priority for the EU, encompassing military, financial, and humanitarian aid. In her hearing, Kallas reaffirmed her commitment to advocating for the 0.25% GDP pledge from EU member states for Ukraine's victory, a proposal she introduced as Estonia's Prime Minister. If US military aid ends or decreases, such a collective step could be crucial for Europe to step up in providing military support for Ukraine. Beyond military aid, the EU will also prioritize Ukraine's recovery, reconstruction, and integration into the Union. This includes implementing the €50 billion Ukraine Facility through 2027. However, Commissioner Kos emphasized that while Europe intends to continue investing in recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine it will also seek international partners, such as the G7, and incentivize private investments. 
3. Solidify stability and reconciliation in the Western Balkans: The next EU Commission remains committed to normalizing Serbia-Kosovo relations, focusing on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The Banjska attack in 2023 and more recently the explosion in the canal supplying water to Kosovo’s two main power plants have amplified security concerns. The normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia is therefore seen as critical for regional stability and successful EU enlargement policy. For HRVP Kallas, together with a new Special Representative to be appointed early 2025, the focus will be resolving the stalemate over the implementation of the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities and the Ohrid Agreement more broadly. 
   
   Furthermore, both HRVP Kallas and Commissioner Kos recognized in their hearings the need to ensure continued peace and stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since starting its accession path in December 2023, the country has been struggling to pass necessary political reforms due to domestic political tensions. Both Kallas and Kos reaffirmed the Dayton Peace Agreement's role in maintaining stability while highlighting the need to address power-sharing conflicts to advance Bosnia’s EU integration.
4. Revitalize relations with the EU’s Southern Neighborhood: The next Commission wants to better assert its influence in the Middle East and North Africa region. In the past, the EU has been criticized for its “transactional” engagement with countries in its Southern neighborhood to curb irregular migration. Both HRVP Kallas and Commissioner Šuica will be address this through developing a new pact for the Mediterranean. Thirty years after the Barcelona Process, the EU will focus on reinvigorating its relations with the Mediterranean region through “building comprehensive partnerships focused on investment, economic stability, jobs, energy, transport, security, migration and other areas of mutual interest.” 
   
   In a similar vein, both Kallas and Šuica will also work on a new EU‑Middle East strategy. Due to lack of unity among member states, the EU has been struggling to exert meaningful influence to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. In the short term the EU remains focused on achieving an immediate ceasefire and its long term strategy intends to focus on “the day after” by a two‑state solution and “strengthening partnerships with key regional stakeholders.”

Transatlantic Cooperation & Engagement

1. Fostering democratic governance and rule of law: The EU and the United States share a commitment to promoting democratic values and governance. While the US cannot directly influence the EU enlargement process, it can support aspiring countries strengthen democratic institutions, fight corruption, and safeguard the rule of law. Coordinated efforts would advance these countries' Euro-Atlantic integration, foster reliable investment climates for Western businesses, and counter foreign interference from China and Russia. For instance, in response to anti-democratic developments in Georgia, both the EU and United States have suspended their respective cooperation mechanisms. Coordination on sanctions and civil society support are crucial in backing Georgian aspirations to join the EU and NATO.
2. Stability in the Western Balkans: The EU and the United States cannot afford to ignore the ongoing tensions in the region. Combining US security credibility with the EU's economic influence can drive positive change. In the case of the Kosovo-Serbia dispute the US Special Representative to the Western Balkans can engage with their EU counterpart on how to bring new momentum to the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue. While proposals such as the so-called ‘land swap’ between Serbia and Kosovo could lead to friction between the EU and United States, US policymakers can engage with their EU counterparts on initiatives, such as the bipartisan Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act to support stability and economic development in the region. 
3. Countering foreign influence: The recent elections in Moldova and Georgia have shown the extent of Russian foreign interference in elections processes. The EU and United States share concerns about the destabilizing effects of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) and have jointly developed a “common methodology for identifying, analyzing and countering FIMI.” As actors, such as Russia, China, and Iran, seek to expand their “spheres of influence” transatlantic coordination on capacity building and funding will be crucial to safeguard democratic institutions in third countries.