Video Transcript

• Ukraine Hits Grim Milestone: Two Years Since Russian Invasion

  This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.

  The war has developed into a quagmire, and no one has the upper hand. That may change after the Russians took Avdiivka. But nevertheless, the war is a war of attrition. And Ukraine has still maintained a significant defense in light of Russian actions. 

  The two lessons of this war and its two year anniversary is how successful Ukraine has been in order to defend itself. It did not have the second counteroffensive, but it has been able to take a lot of the territory that it lost in the beginning of the war. 

  The second major takeaway is that the Russian army has not performed as well as people expected and so whether the Russian army has the forces and the equipment to maintain its battlefield position is a question mark. It has relied on convicts. It has relied on troops from Nepal and it has had problems gaining Russians to join the army. So I think one of the biggest obstacles for Russia in the long term is how it maintains its military force. 

  I am looking at the impact of sanctions on the Russian Federation and there is every indication that sanctions are beginning to bite, whether it be in terms of inflation, interest rates, economic development and so forth. So I believe the thing that will be a huge determinant as to how this war ends is whether the Russian economy implodes. Ukraine has made a commitment, and I think Europe has made a commitment that Ukraine will be a part of Europe. And that scares Vladimir Putin and his idea of the greater Eurasian space.