History proves that if, following the radical changes in the international relations, reliable mechanisms and instruments to support the new configuration are not set up, earlier or later some members of the system will try to disrupt the balance of forces. Geopolitical assault can be considered one of such instruments. Its essence is the restoration of the control over the lost territories and spheres of influence, and in the end, it leads not only to restoration, but also to the enhancement of its status in the international system.
Кожен, хто спостерігає за нинішніми подіями в Україні, має їм своє пояснення. Одні говорять про геостратегічні битви між Заходом і Сходом, інші про початок виборчої кампанії 2015 р., ще інші про патологічну ненависть Януковича до Тимошенко, а треті про черговий глобальний перерозподіл сфер впливу та капіталу. Мабуть, усі ці точки зору мають право на існування і кожна з них єпочасти вірною, однак, лише почасти.
There are plenty of reasons to be cynical about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s motivation in announcing an amnesty last month for more than 20,000 prisoners, writes Matthew Rojansky. But one vital fact should not be overlooked: real progress has now been made on one of the most persistently contentious items on the Russia-West agenda.
In his final 2013 appearances, Putin subtly warned — and the Volgograd bombings graphically confirmed — that major changes must come in the new year. William Pomeranz analyzes Putin's December speeches and what they say about Russia in 2014.
This study, based on primary research conducted in Moscow in 2012, defines Russia’s assessment of domestic and international sources violent extremist threats; explains Moscow’s perspective on balancing democratic principles with the challenge of countering violent extremism in the Internet/social media; assesses existing capacities and impediments to further international collaboration with Russia in countering violent extremism in the Internet/social media spheres; defines specific initiatives that Russia, the United States, and other nations of the world community could advance to enhance international cooperation in countering violent extremism throughout the world cyber community.
Though Ukraine appears to be “caught between East and West,” Ukrainians themselves do not see it this way, writes Matthew Rojansky. "The protest movement appears to be an expression of support for a modern, European, democratic Ukrainian state."
Kennan Institute's Deputy Director, William Pomeranz, is interviewed by the Wall Street Journal about Russia's surprise closure of RIA Novosti.
"The bigger problem with lamentations about “who lost Ukraine” is that they offer no useful assessment of why Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovich actually decided to walk away from the table, while painting the future with a hopelessly broad brush, and sidestepping the most urgently important question—what to do next," writes Matthew Rojansky in The National Interest.
The West has yet another opportunity to learn more about Ukraine. Although it’s not under the best circumstances, we hope that someday the opportunities will change in their quality, not just increase in quantity, and the word “Ukraine” will evoke, in the minds of EU citizens, something specific and positive rather than vague and negative.
Experts & Staff
- Matthew Rojansky // Director, Kennan Institute
- William E. Pomeranz // Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
- F. Joseph Dresen // Program Associate
- Mary Elizabeth Malinkin // Program Associate
- Izabella Tabarovsky // Manager for Regional Engagement
- Mattison Brady // Program Assistant
- Emma Dorst // Program Assistant
- Blair A. Ruble // Vice President for Programs; Director, Urban Sustainability Laboratory; and Senior Advisor, Kennan Institute
- Kateryna Smagliy // Director, Kennan Institute in Ukraine
- Nina Rozhanovskaya // Coordinator and Academic Liaison in Russia