Free and fair elections are routinely expected in Canada, but, for Canadians, the next federal general election is looking like an election about being free and treated fair: Canada’s freedom as an independent country, not the 51^st US state, and Canadian desire for fair trade rules in response to US tariffs. This election will decide who leads Canada but will also send a message to Washington about the future of Canada-United States relations.

Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney asked Governor General Mary Simon to call a federal election for Monday, April 28. Under the Canada Elections Act, an election must be held no less than 36 days after the writ of election is issued, and not more than 51 days after. This election campaign, at 36 days, is the shortest allowed, reflecting the urgency Canadians feel about having strong leadership now. 

Voters will select 343 Members of Parliament for the 45^th Parliament of Canada, five more than the 44^th Parliament in which there were 338 seats in the House of Commons. The adjustment means that it will take 172 seats to form a majority government; since 2004, Canadians have had only two majority governments, one Conservative and one Liberal, meaning that for more than 60 percent of the past 21 years Canada has had relatively weak, minority governments that held only a plurality of Commons seats.

Canadians have been anticipating an election for months. Canada’s fixed election date system required a federal election four years after the previous one on October 20, 2021. Justin Trudeau’s January 6 resignation set in motion two processes: the prorogation of Parliament until Monday, March 24 and a leadership contest within the Liberal Party that chose Carney on March 9. By calling for an election before the return of Parliament, Carney avoided the ritual of a Throne Speech setting out the government’s agenda that would likely have been followed by a vote of no-confidence that would have triggered an election anyway.

After leading by 20 points for more than a year, the Official Opposition Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre lost its slight lead over the Liberals since Carney replaced Trudeau, with some showing the Liberals now ahead. The Conservatives led for more than a year because the country was tired of Trudeau and the Conservatives were the only party capable of winning a national election and displacing the Liberals: the Bloc Quebecois runs candidates only in Quebec, while support for the New Democratic Party and the Green Party is concentrated in too few areas of the country.

An Election about Something: Relations with the United States

Canada’s most recent federal election in 2021 was dubbed “an election about nothing” as low voter turnout showed a country unconvinced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s justification for calling the election more than a year early. Afterward, the 2021 election left Canadians “more divided than ever.”

The 2025 election will be different. It will be about one thing: responding to new rhetoric from US President Donald Trump that have prompted the greatest crisis in US-Canadian relations in more than a century.

The tone of US-Canada relations started to shift at a Mar-a-Lago dinner on November 29, 2024, when President-elect Donald Trump called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “the governor of the 51st state”. The initial taunt was aimed at Trudeau, but soon Canada’s independence was regularly questioned by the president and administration officials. In February, after Trump used an interview following the National Football League Superbowl to insist that Canadians would be better off as Americans. Trudeau told Canadians that the annexation threat was not a joke.

While Poilievre has been praised repeatedly by Trump ally Elon Musk and earned admiration from Trump supporters for his critique of the Canadian establishment and media, he was quick to reject the idea of Canada becoming a US state, arguing that “We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country”. 

Carney has taken a similarly nationalist position, saying in February, “America is not Canada, and Canada will never ever be part of America in any way, shape or form”. Carney echoed this view in his speech accepting the Liberal leadership proclaiming that, “Canada will never, ever be part of America.”  Soon after, he was asked by a reporter to respond to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s repetition of Trump’s call for Canadian statehood and replied, “It’s crazy, full stop.” 

While a US invasion of Canada is not imminent, Trump said that the US would use “economic force” to pressure Canada to join the United States. Canadians view US tariff threats as the start of this pressure.

Since the start of 2025, Canada has faced three tariff threats from the United States: 

• An across-the-board 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada premised on inadequate border security efforts to address fentanyl trafficking. These tariffs were applied on March 2, triggering Canadian retaliation, and modified and suspended on March 6, citing the automotive industry.
• Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from all sources including Canada, which took effect March 12.
• New reciprocal tariffs based on import tariffs imposed on US products. These tariffs will be based on studies from agencies and departments due to be delivered to the president on April 1 and tariffs would be applicable as soon as April 2. may include tariffs in response to the tariff rate equivalent of Canada’s dairy supply management policies, and a tariff to counter value-added taxation such as Canada’s Goods and Services Tax, for example.

US tariff threats were initially seen by Canadians as intended to induce an early start to the review of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated during the first Trump administration. The suspension of tariffs on automotive trade on March was premised on automotive products’ compliance with the USMCA rule of origin. 

Following USMCA rules is a fair request, and the USMCA review was mandated in the agreement to occur by 2026, so starting this review early is fair and reasonable.

But if tariffs are meant to force Canadians into submission to US statehood, Canadians will consider them unfair – and demand that the next prime minister of Canada fight back.

Conservative leader Poilievre has adopted a “Canada First” position rejecting US tariff threats. He argues that his program of economic reform is the best way to strengthen Canada so that it can resist US tariff attacks. 

Trump noticed Poilievre’s defiant tone, telling interviewer Ben Domenech of The Spectator published on February 28 that “I think his biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he’s really not he’s not a Trump guy at all.” Ironically, in the current political atmosphere in Canada, this criticism may boost support for Poilievre. 

Later, in response to the March 2 imposition of tariffs, Poilievre said that America had stabbed Canada in the back, and that, “While Canadians are slow to anger and quick to forgive, once provoked, we fight back. And we will fight back.” 

Prime Minister Carney must balance the diplomacy required of an incumbent with the tough talk Canadians want from their leaders in response to US threats. 

After becoming leader, Carney traveled to Paris and London to meet with his French and British counterparts – a break with the tradition for Canadian prime ministers to meet their US counterparts first. Carney told the CBC he would speak to Trump on the basis of mutual respect for sovereignty. 

In calling the April 28 election, Carney was more direct. "We need to build the strongest economy in the G7. We need to deal with President Trump’s tariffs," Carney posted on X on March 23.

Relations with the United States are now the central issue of the Canadian federal general election on April 28. The campaign will give Canadians the chance to speak out and be heard in response to US treatment that has already led Canadian fans to boo the US national anthem at hockey and basketball games against American teams.

Geoff Norquay, a former staffer for the late Prime Minister Brian Mulroney – the most pro-American Canadian leader in recent memory - argued back in February that the 2025 ballot question for Canadians would be Donald Trump. This prediction has proven accurate.

On day one of the campaign, the ballot answer seems certain to be that Canadians want their country to remain free and trade with the United States to be fair. It will be a message that Canada’s prime minister after April 28 and the Trump administration will need to contend with as bilateral relations enter an uncertain new phase.