Mexico Elections 2018: Flash Analysis

Earl Anthony Wayne, Advisory Board Co-Chair, Mexico Institute; Former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico 

"With the exit polls giving Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) a big win in the Presidential election Sunday evening, key will be the size of victory for his party and allies in congressional elections and gubernatorial races.  Also key tonight (Sunday) will be the messages to the nation in AMLO's statements.

Note that President Trump tweeted a congratulations to AMLO.  His victory is an opening for a new, more positive tone in Mexico-U.S. exchanges."

Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute

"Speaking with Mexican voters today, I found a mix of sentiment regarding Andrés Manuel López Obrador, even among those voting for him. Many are confident that he will bring change to Mexico, cleaning up corruption and putting the poor first. Others expressed significant reservations about AMLO but were simply unwilling to support any of the other candidates. In sum, it’s a mix of true believers and massive frustration with the political class that seems poised to propel Andrés Manuel to the presidency."

Eric Olson, Senior Advisor for Security, Mexico Institute

"Mexicans headed to the polls today with some big issues to decide. Polls suggest that they are in a “throw the bums out” frame of mind. Record homicide rates, massive corruption scandals, and continued economic anxiety has led many to cast this election as a rejection of traditional politicians and their parties, and vote for a different direction for the country no matter how vaguely that path is defined. “Estamos hartos,” “we are fed up,” is a refrain often heard from common Mexicans who may not love AMLO but have had it with politics as usual where the public treasury is treated more like a piñata than something to be carefully administered.  Of course others do have faith in AMLO and believe the country is finally about to embark on a path that puts Mexico’s majority first and reaffirms Mexico’s ideals.  

As important as elections are in a democracy, democracy is much more. If citizen demands for greater transparency in government, greater accountability, less corruption and violence are to be met then whoever wins today has to get serious about building democratic institutions or they will face the same fate in six years." 

Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute

"The Mexican voting system, with polling places run by citizens and the votes counted by citizens in the open air for all to witness, is a stronghold of egalitarianism in a still-fledgling democracy. There were some problems with polling places opening late and a handful of more serious challenges across the country, but by and large electoral process has been unfolding in a peaceful, orderly and fair manner." 

Tweets from our experts:

A new day in Mexico City: AMLO wins with 53%, enthusiastic crowds celebrated last night. pic.twitter.com/k2XPA5Ap0D

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) July 2, 2018

Very different tone in his speech to the crowd here in the Zocalo - he is feeding off the energy of 100k+ people gathered here tonight

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

Ángel de la Independencia pic.twitter.com/jlMo8ha0hM

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

@lopezobrador_ stresses reconciliation, respect for institutions & democratic rights while fighting corruption & impunity, in victory remarks. Pledges to be president of all Mexicans while fighting poverty. Mentions importance of U.S. relations; ambiguous on security strategy

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) July 2, 2018

AMLO calls for a smooth and respectful transition. Crowd in the zocalo shouts “Fuera Peña” pic.twitter.com/nUobzw1nyo

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

Just getting cell service back after leaving the zocalo. Crowd was huge and delighted. Confetti and drones flying above. pic.twitter.com/c0ABdreQnE

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

AMLO’s speech in the Zocalo. “I’m not going to fail you...I don’t want to pass in mtonhistory as a bad president.” pic.twitter.com/qZggNUIC3n

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

Heading to the zocalo pic.twitter.com/ayzcEjidLX

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

AMLO announces that Marcelo Ebrard, the consummate cosmopolitan politician (and former Mexico City mayor), and Hector Vasconcelos, a more traditional diplomat, will jointly coordinate his foreign policy team during the transition.

— Andrew Selee (@SeleeAndrew) July 2, 2018

Rivers of people are heading to Zocalo. Flags, trumpets, esquires @MexicoInstitute@Chris_E_Wilsonpic.twitter.com/hy2rh1WHST

— Viridiana Rios (@Viri_Rios) July 2, 2018

AMLO - relationship with US will be based on mutual respect

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

Mexico's National Electoral Institute's rapid vote estimate indicates a victory for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with 53% of the vote for President. Current President Pena Nieto offers his congratulations to AMLO.

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) July 2, 2018

AMLO says will not raise taxes (overall) and will not indebt the country

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

AMLO says he will review oil contracts and if he finds illegalities then he will refer them to the congress and to national and international courts

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

AMLO sends solid message to markets with his acceptance speech - fiscal discipline and central bank autonomy.

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

In his acceptance speech, AMLO calls for reconciliation pic.twitter.com/QFeTvshylt

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

Looks like AMLO will have huge coattails in Congress - in the chamber of deputies he will have at least 256 and maybe as many as 291 in his coalition

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

Official quick count results put AMLO at 53-56%. Stunning. Coattails are likely huge. @MexicoInstitute

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 2, 2018

AMLO won with 53% of the vote! Incredible

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

Exit polls signal a big win for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico's presidential race. Other candidates recognize his big lead. Now looking to see the size of the victory, including in congressional and gubernatorial races, and for the messages AMLO sends tonight.

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) July 2, 2018

It’s 8:45 pm in Mexico City and the presidential election is over even before the official vote count is in. Both Meade and Anaya have conceded and congratulated AMLO. Next we’ll see what’s the size of the victory, the congress, governorships, etc. And then what AMLO says.

— Andrew Selee (@SeleeAndrew) July 2, 2018

Anaya has now conceded as well as Meade. This election is demonstration of a maturing Mexican democracy—respecting the will of the people.

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

Incredible that all three of the other candidates have already conceded defeat within 40 minutes of the official closing of the polls!

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 2, 2018

Working in near darkness with flashlights but determined to finish the vote count. No one has left. @MexicoInstitutepic.twitter.com/7A8P9PRvIg

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 2, 2018

Under a precarious tent with leaning polls, menacing wind, and no electricity. Will vote counting conclude before rain and nightfall? @MexicoInstitutepic.twitter.com/tX827wPU9d

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 2, 2018

Poll workers announce each vote and show ballot to the party observers. @MexicoInstitutepic.twitter.com/SZ0CEaXmmu

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 2, 2018

Party reps wait outside perimeter as poll workers prepare to count votes. pic.twitter.com/Y5qI47rWdn

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 2, 2018

Mexico’s electoral special prosecutor has received about a thousand reports of electoral anomalies. About regular numbers for such a meaningful and large election @MexicoInstitute@AztecDuncan@Chris_E_Wilson@Eric_Latam@EAnthonyWayne

https://t.co/r1Mox56wNb

— Viridiana Rios (@Viri_Rios) July 1, 2018

Polls are now closed. Poll workers are invalidating unused ballots before they count the votes. Very open process. @MexicoInstitute@TheWilsonCenterpic.twitter.com/y2YSpaQVRz

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 1, 2018

Ex-Footballer Cuauhtémoc Blanco appears to be way ahead in the race for Governor of Morelos according to exit polls. Some of his propaganda from the Cuernavaca market today: pic.twitter.com/kHTGI6pYeZ

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 2, 2018

As of 5:00 pm in Mexico City, local poll observers said about 500 of 700 potential voters had cast their ballots in this middle to upper class neighborhood voting spot without any problems. pic.twitter.com/pH1jOi0KOi

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) July 1, 2018

By 5pm this polling station had received 500 out of 750 voters, suggesting a strong turnout pic.twitter.com/9U4D5di5kS

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 1, 2018

In Cuernavaca, Morelos for the day to watch the elections. pic.twitter.com/IlpllTAxMg

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 1, 2018

Aquí con los amigos del @MexicoInstitute: @Eric_Latam y Raúl Benítez Manaut, "protecting Mexican democracy." Observando #EleccionesMéxico2018pic.twitter.com/I4JH0CHL47

— Guadalupe Correa (@GCorreaCabrera) July 1, 2018

Pollster tells me most voters aren’t willing to take his exit survey. pic.twitter.com/rOJcHgurRF

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 1, 2018

Mexicans voting in a working class neighborhood of Mexico City pic.twitter.com/JG8qUSSfup

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) July 1, 2018

Some reports off polls opening a little late across Mexico, but so far people at the sites I have visited say things are running smoothly. pic.twitter.com/8bjOIUrPZA

— Christopher E Wilson (@Chris_E_Wilson) July 1, 2018

With Wilson Center Global Fellow @GCorreaCabrera hard at work as an official observer in her beloved Mexico. @TheWilsonCenter@MexicoInstitutepic.twitter.com/IGnP5UJUCo

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 1, 2018

Impressed with the young people working the voter tables. Very focused. Very serious. @MexicoInstitute@TheWilsonCenter@rwmckennapic.twitter.com/pvzYD917fq

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 1, 2018

Polling place in State of Mexico. Long lines. @MexicoInstitutepic.twitter.com/kAXDGp2fhL

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 1, 2018

Checking voter lists to confirm eligibility to vote. @MexicoInstitutepic.twitter.com/9nQatRR2ZT

— Eric L Olson (@Eric_Latam) July 1, 2018

Reports of long lines at polling stations in Mexico; AMLO has already voted but even he had to wait as the electoral staff showed up late!

— Duncan Wood (@AztecDuncan) July 1, 2018