Putting Reconciliation in the Western Balkans Back on the EU Enlargement Agenda

2024 marks the 10th anniversary of the Berlin Process. Established to advance regional integration in the Western Balkans as well as that with the EU, the Berlin Process has struggled to implement these ambitious ideas. Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked momentum in EU enlargement the progress pace for the Western Balkan countries continues to be slow and the ambitious 2030 enlargement goal from European Council President Charles Michel seems to be drifting away. 

The lack of reform progress by Western Balkan countries is an important piece of the puzzle, but strained regional relations and deep-rooted grievances—painfully obvious during the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)—further complicate progress. The European Commission must prioritize reconciliation efforts in its next mandate, or the future of the Western Balkans in the EU will remain, in the words of the President of North Macedonia Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova an “unfinished symphony.”

Regional tensions on display

The speeches from several Western Balkan leaders at UNGA provide a detailed snapshot of regional dynamics. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić accused the West of double standards and ongoing efforts to “tear Serbia apart” by recognizing Kosovo. Bosnia’s Chairman of the Presidency Denis Bečirović warned of “the greater-state aspirations of Serbia towards the territories of other countries in the region.” The President of North Macedonia, called the country’s name change in 2018 “unjust and illegitimate,” and Albania’s President Edi Rama warned that the “artificially drawn parallels between Kosovo and the occupied areas of Ukraine are meant to distract and confuse […] but they can never achieve to dilute the truth.” All of this shows how nationalist and divisive rhetoric continue to dominate intra-regional relations in the Western Balkans.

These remarks are also a telling example of the ongoing fragile stability in the Western Balkans. The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia is at one of its lowest points since 2011 with both sides being criticized for a “simulation of the dialogue.” In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the secessionist rhetoric from Milorad Dodik has heightened ethnic tensions and hampered the country's access to funding from the EU’s New Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. Recently, the Resolution on Genocide in Jasenovac, Dachau, and Mauthausen camp systems adopted by the Montenegrin Parliament also raised tensions between Montenegro and Croatia. Such dynamics hinder regional cooperation and good neighborly relations as well as create fertile ground for external actors, such as Russia and China, to exploit these narratives to further fuel disunity in the region and distrust in Euro-Atlantic structures. 

In its 2018 enlargement strategy, the EU recognized reconciliation “as a prerequisite for EU accession.” It adopted an action plan that included support for concrete reconciliation efforts, such as the Regional Youth Cooperation Office and the RECOM coalition. However, these efforts have recently taken a back seat.The adoption of the New Growth Plan puts more emphasis on achieving regional integration through economic revitalization. And in her mission letter to the Commissioner-designate for enlargement Marta Kos, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to reconciliation merely as broad efforts to “encourage regional integration, good neighborly relations, reconciliation, and the resolution of bilateral disputes.”  

Policy Recommendations

Seeing how various regional political actors utilize historical grievances and nationalist rhetoric for short-term political gains and negative perception of the EU, the new Commission must prioritize reconciliation efforts to achieve a shared future for the region within the EU. This should be done by: 

Creating more incentives: Under the New Growth Plan, access to funding is conditioned upon implementation of specific socio-economic and fundamental reforms. Each Western Balkan country prepares an individual reform agenda reviewed by the European Commission before approval. Progress in reconciliation efforts should be included in these reform agendas. 

Countering revisionist narratives: Various internal and external actors in the Western Balkans exploit divisive rhetoric and historical grievances for short-term political gains, including fueling distrust and skepticism toward the EU. During his speech at the UN, for example, the Serbian President Vučić lambasted the work and values of the same institutions he claims his government is working toward joining. Initiatives, such as WeBalkans.eu that highlight cooperation between EU and the Western Balkans are a step in the right directions. However, more needs to be done on the political level.  EU representatives and leaders, especially the new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Special Representatives in the Western Balkan region need to send clear political messages on these issues, countering the unhelpful narratives.

Supporting bottom-up efforts: The EU needs to allocate more funding for civil society organizations and independent media. They play a key role in current reconciliation efforts and the development of new, innovative initiatives as well as have better access to relevant audiences in the region. The focus should be on ensuring long-term grants to enable these organizations’ strategic planning and limit external (government) pressure. 

Safeguarding future enlargement: The credibility of the EU enlargement process—and direct progress of several Western Balkan countries—has been significantly affected by bilateral issues. If the Western Balkans countries join the Union one by one, the unresolved tensions in the region could affect the prospects of integrating the whole region. To not miss this geopolitical opportunity, the EU needs to ensure bilateral issues are addressed but cannot directly hinder a candidate country’s accession progress. This is crucial not only for the Western Balkans but also for Ukraine's future EU membership, as its accession process could potentially be impacted by bilateral issues with Poland and Hungary.

Opportunity for a Broader Transatlantic Strategy 

Supporting regional reconciliation in the Western Balkans is also an opportunity for transatlantic cooperation. Regional integration, economic development, democratic progress, as well as integration into the EU, are shared interests of both the EU and the United States. Reconciliation plays a key role in achieving these goals. While the United States cannot directly influence the EU enlargement process, it can tailor its strategy for the region to ensure that its regional integration efforts include more (long-term) assistance for ongoing and new reconciliation initiatives. 

As Western Balkan leaders gather for the 10th anniversary Berlin Process Summit, the region’s integration progress remains lackluster. Both the EU and the United States therefore must take a decisive stance on advancing regional reconciliation with concrete programs and firm political discourse. Only in this way can the Western Balkans move from a vision of a shared regional future to making that future a reality.