The state of play between Russia and Ukraine bears at least one striking similarity to that which has been unfolding between Saudi Arabia and the other Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. In both cases, a major regional power is struggling to regain hold over former subservient allies now bent on breaking away from their imperial grasp.

In the case of Russia, President Vladimir Putin dreams of restoring some iteration of the former Soviet Union when Moscow ruled over fifteen “republics” that are now all independent states, in name at least. In Saudi Arabia on the other hand, the de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) wants to re-establish Saudi dominance over the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), made up of the six Arab monarchies whose other members are increasingly going their separate ways.

The GCC has not totally collapsed like the Soviet Union did in 1991, but it has remained a shadow of its vision to replicate the European Union and NATO combined.

Two of the six, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have staked out foreign policies ever more distinct from Saudi Arabia’s. Two others, Oman and Kuwait, have quietly adopted a neutral stance in the struggle for regional hegemony between the Saudi kingdom and Iran. Only Bahrain has remained a faithful ally largely due to the ruling Sunni family’s dependence on Saudi military intervention for its rescue from a Shiite uprising there in 2011. The GCC has not totally collapsed like the Soviet Union did in 1991, but it has remained a shadow of its vision to replicate the European Union and NATO combined.

Putin’s mobilization of Russian troops around Ukraine is reminiscent of the Saudi-led land, sea, and air blockade of Qatar, in both instances a resort to an extreme and risky tactic. From June 2017 to January 2021, Qatar came under enormous pressure to accede to Saudi diktat in its foreign policy. It was backed up by Saudi efforts to promote the overthrow of Qatar’s ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani. Similarly, Putin seems bent upon toppling Ukraine’s pro-Western president, Volodymyr Zelensky, either by sending in Russian forces or using other subversive means.

The crown prince’s quest to restore Saudi GCC leadership has become more intense as he watches another neighbor, Yemen, also slipping out from the Saudi orbit and into the Iranian one. So far, the result of seven years of civil warfare between Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces has been to vastly increase Iran’s influence and displace Saudi Arabia as the dominant foreign power there.

Like Russia in Central Europe, Saudi Arabia stands out as a regional superpower. It is the elephant among GCC members, with a population larger than all the other monarchies combined and the largest economy in the entire Arab world. The kingdom is also that world’s leading oil and financial power.  In addition, the Saudi kingdom is the birthplace of Islam and site of its two holiest mosques, giving it enormous soft power.

It is also the oldest state among the GCC monarchies. The current Saudi kingdom dates back to 1932, while Kuwait only became independent in 1961 and the others a decade later. Initially, they were content to follow the lead of their Saudi “big brother,” or at least avoid challenging it directly. This began to change in the mid-1990s, however, when Qatar took its first steps to carve out a role for itself independent of Saudi Arabia. This trend accelerated greatly with the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings as GCC members took different sides in the internal struggles for power elsewhere in the Arab world.

The crown prince’s vision for a united GCC under Saudi guidance was reflected clearly in the final Riyadh Declaration of the latest GCC summit held in the Saudi capital last December. It called for the “strategic integration”’ of all members’ economic, defense and security policies and for the group’s Supreme Council to double its efforts to accomplish “full economic unity” by 2025. MBS had taken a tour of other member states to sell himself as a statesman worthy of GCC leadership just before the summit, and in the case of Qatar to heal the wounds from the 42-month-long blockade.

Saudi kings have run into constant resistance in seeking to establish a European-style common market and currency and put together a common defense structure under its command.

Saudi leadership has had a checkered record ever since the GCC was established in 1981 to counter Iran’s Islamic revolution which openly sought the overthrown of the Arab monarchies. Saudi kings have run into constant resistance in seeking to establish a European-style common market and currency and put together a common defense structure under its command. The United States has backed plans in particular for an integrated air defense system against Iranian missiles, but it never happened.

The major stumbling block to all these Saudi-led unity efforts has been the unwillingness of the other Arab monarchies to cede decision-making and state sovereignty to Saudi rulers.

The GCC has managed at times, however, to act in concert under Saudi leadership. Two Arab League peace plans proposed to Israel, one in 1981 and another in 2002, were the work of Saudi kings backed by other GCC members. The Saudis also mediated the so-called Taif Agreement that put an end to the civil war among warring Lebanese factions in 1989. It also led GCC efforts to gain international support for the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 in retaliation for the Libyan leader’s involvement in a plot to assassinate former Saudi King Abdullah.

Since MBS became crown prince in June 2017, however, Saudi Arabia has seen its attempts to project power and influence over its neighbors checked time and time again.  After seven years of the Saudi-led invasion of Yemen, its capital, Sanaa, remains in Houthi hands as well as the populous north. The blockade of Qatar, even with the support of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, proved a failure.  In the end, the crown prince yielded to pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump and lifted it in the last days of his presidency —without having brought Qatar to heel.

Perhaps the most devastating blow to Saudi ambitions has been MBS’ failure to convince most of its GCC partners to adopt a policy of confrontation, rather than accommodation or even cooperation, toward Iran.

Perhaps the most devastating blow to Saudi ambitions has been MBS’ failure to convince most of its GCC partners to adopt a policy of confrontation, rather than accommodation or even cooperation, toward Iran. Qatar, which shares a massive gas field with Iran, favors cooperation, while Kuwait and Oman have shown a clear preference for accommodation. Even the United Arab Emirates, which has a longstanding territorial dispute with Iran over three Gulf islands, has shown little appetite for confrontation. 

Putin and MBS have employed quite different tactics-- the former military might, the latter a blockade—to try to punish and subdue a former subservient ally. The GCC quite obviously has a totally different history from that of the Soviet Union.  But the two autocrats are alike in their heavy-handed imperial attitude toward their smaller neighbors. MBS failed in his attempt to bring Qatar to heel. Putin may have more success, but the arch of history does not seem in favor of empire builders either in Europe or the Middle East.   

The views expressed in this article are personal to the author and do not represent those of the Wilson Center, which does not take positions on policy issues.