Amidst a deteriorating security environment in Europe following Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, doubt about further US engagement in the region, and growing calls for greater European capabilities to provide for their own defense, European NATO members are in the process of re-evaluating their expenditure on defense. Poland, with over 4% of its GDP spent on defense in 2024 and plans to reach 4.7% in 2025, has long been ahead of the curve in this regard. Its transition from a Soviet-era military framework to a leading military power within NATO through modern defense infrastructure after the Warsaw Pact’s collapse was challenging. Nevertheless, Poland now leads the alliance in defense spending as a percentage of GDP, surpassing even the United States, and has arguably emerged as Europe’s most capable military power and a key thought leader on defense matters. This leadership is tested by multiple incursions into Polish airspace, sparking a national conversation about the rights of eastern flank nations to shoot down drones or debris entering their airspace. As Poland holds the rotating EU Council Presidency, with a strong focus on security, it has reaffirmed its leadership role in Europe defense through its new budget and by positioning itself as a thought leader in shaping the future of European security, especially amidst the change of US administrations.

Background and security threats

The accession of Poland to NATO in 1999 as well as the forward-looking security strategy it adopted helped the country reach its current position as one of the alliance’s most defense-ready members. At the 2014 NATO Summit in Wales, the Defence Investment Pledge urged allies to meet the 2% of GDP guideline for defense spending by 2025. As the “deadline” approaches, some countries—such as Spain, Slovenia, or Luxembourg—still struggle with achieving the promised 2%. Poland, by contrast, has consistently maintained its defense spending at or above the 2% threshold since 2020.

Poland’s long standing focus on defense spending can be attributed to two main factors. First, Poland’s long history of invasions and occupations, including its time under Soviet occupation, has deepened its vigilance against external threats and strengthened a national commitment to defense. Second, is its geopolitical position bordering a revanchist Russia, and one of Russia’s closest allies, Belarus. In addition, Poland is the main entrance and egress for Ukraine, which also leads to a chain of risks as Europe’s security environment deteriorates.

One of the most alarming security threats Poland has faced in recent history happened in November 2022 in the Przewodów village when two Poles were killed as a result of an explosion of a Soviet-made missile. This marked the first strike on NATO territory since the invasion of Ukraine in February. Many questioned if the incident warranted triggering NATO's Article 5. However, as Ben Hodges, the former Commander General of US Army Europe, explained on X, “there is no such thing as 'triggering' Article 5. It's not automatic.” Per NATO's guidelines, Article 4 would need to be triggered first, requiring the allies to consult and conclude that Russian missiles were sent deliberately. Poland was hesitant to call for action immediately with rising theories that the missile landed in the Polish territory as a result of the Ukrainian air defense system in operation. It was later confirmed that the incident was likely an accident; however, the responsibility still lay with Russia, which had instigated the invasion of Ukraine.

A similar situation occurred in March 2024 when a Russian missile violated Polish airspace. In response, Poland activated fighter jets. Overall, there have been several cases of Russian drones, missiles, and debris entering Polish airspace since 2022. However, Poland, similarly to other NATO members whose air space was violated by Russian drones, has not raised these incursions to the Article 5 level to deal with unidentified airspace violations. Ongoing debates within Polish media reflect the tension between being able to shoot down unidentified airspace objects, especially if there is a risk to Polish citizens’ safety.

NATO and airspace violations

One of the primary responsibilities of any country is to safeguard its independence, territorial integrity, sovereignty, and the security of its citizens. Unidentified airspace objects pose a direct threat to these principles, and shooting them down should be considered an unquestionable right. “Membership in NATO does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace—it’s our own constitutional duty,” said Radosław Sikorski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, adding, “I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defense [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.” However, such an approach involves a risk of escalating tensions or involving NATO members into the war. Krzysztof Gawkowski, Deputy Prime Minister of Poland, recently accused Volodymyr Zelensky of attempting to “drag” Poland into war with Russia, following Zelensky's proposal that Poland intercepts and shoots down Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace, if heading toward Polish territory.

Russian drones have violated the airspace of three NATO members so far: Poland, Latvia, and Romania (potentially more that are not publicly disclosed). Underscoring the growing concerns over the frequency of such incursions, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs supported the idea of NATO countries shooting down Russian drones that stray into member states’ territory. While there is no consensus within NATO for dealing with such airspace violations, letting individual members take independent action, such as shooting down Russian drones over Ukrainian territory, would have significant risks for the rest of the alliance. Instead, NATO’s current response—enhancing air defense capabilities along its eastern flank—reflects its commitment to collective dialogue and is currently seen as the most unified and strategic response.

How does Poland ensure its security?

The jump from 2.4% to 4% of GDP between 2022 and 2024 is largely attributable to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which intensified Poland's perception of a potential threat. Support for Ukraine has been a constant priority. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Poland has ranked 8th since 2022 in GDP percentage dedicated to total aid for Ukraine–including humanitarian, financial, and military allocations–and in the percentage allocated specifically to military aid.

 Poland has provided $600 million worth of tanks, including over 250 Soviet T-72 tanks, more than 30 PT-91 Twardy tanks (an older Polish model), and 14 German-made Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks. Additional military contributions include over 250 BWP–1 infantry fighting vehicles, 100 KTO Rosomak, armored personnel carriers, around nine BRDM 2, reconnaissance vehicles, over a hundred self–propelled guns, and over 30 BM–21 Grad rocket launchers.

 Poland has also played a pivotal role in coordinating foreign military aid. As of November 2024, of the almost 800 tanks that Ukraine received from other countries, Poland facilitated delivery of more than 350 of them. The POLLOGHUB in Rzeszów, set up with US assistance, serves as a logistical hub for military aid to Ukraine, with an estimated 80% of military donations to Ukraine having passed through Polish territory.

Poland has also strengthened its security through hosting NATO troops, including hosting a multinational brigade led by the United States as the framework nation. Following the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, which identified Russia as the main threat to the alliance's stability, allies agreed to deploy additional forces to NATO's eastern flank. This scaled up the presence from battalion-size battlegroups to brigade-size units and increased high-readiness troops from 40,000 to 300,000 under a new NATO Force Model.

One of the most recent milestones highlighting NATO’s enhanced presence in Poland was the opening of the US Aegis Ashore missile defense base in Redzikowo, in northern Poland, last November 2024. The Redzikowo installation, comprising the AN/SPY-1 radar, Mk 41 VLS launcher, and Standard Missile-3 anti-ballistic missiles forms part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach system. In addition, Poland hosts the permanent headquarters of the US 5th Army Corps at Camp Kościuszko in Poznań, which includes their forward command post, an Army garrison headquarters and a field support battalion. The country also hosts numerous training facilities for NATO exercises, such as the Drawsko Pomorskie Training Area in northern Poland, which hosts large-scale exercises, such as Brilliant Jump 2024, involving troops from multiple allied nations.

The combination of Poland’s own defense capabilities and NATO’s presence on its territory creates a strong deterrence strategy. Poland does not rely solely on NATO for protection, but through hosting NATO forces ensures it does not face threats alone. The combination of these factors as well as strong support for Ukraine makes Poland a leader in NATO defense expenditure rankings and makes it a reliable member of the alliance.

Polish Security in 2025

Poland took over the Presidency of the EU Council with “Security, Europe!” as its motto. Strengthening European defence was identified as one of the key frameworks for the term, as the region marks the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The unstable security situation in Eastern Europe has made ensuring a high level of defense a priority for all nations, but especially for those on NATO’s eastern flank. Domestically, the Sejm (lower house of Poland’s legislature) has already approved the 2025 budget, with significant allocations for the defense sector, and President Duda has signed it into law. This funding is sourced primarily from the state budget and the Armed Forces Support Fund, established in 2022 as part of the National Development Bank to support the modernization of Poland’s military.

In 2025, Poland’s defense spending is projected to reach a record 186.6 billion zlotys (approximately $45 billion), exceeding the 2024 budget by 28.6 billion zlotys ($7 billion). Notably, around half a billion zlotys ($126 million) has been earmarked to enhance border security with Belarus. Overall, defense expenditure will account for 4.7% of Poland's GDP in 2025, solidifying the country’s position as a leader in defense within NATO.