Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi became the first Arab foreign minister to visit Syria and meet with the new de factor leader Ahmed Al Shara since Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) toppled the Assad regime in early December 2024, ending a brutal reign that spanned half a century. Safadi’s statements in Damascus reinforced support for the Syrian people promised by Jordan’s ruler, King Abdullah II, who amplified Jordan’s respect for “their will and choices.”

Safadi’s visit is emblematic of Jordan’s pragmatic foreign policy approach towards its northern neighbor as the Syrian people and the new transitional administration chart a path forward toward rehabilitation and rebuilding.

For a country that was part of the regional normalization with Bashar al-Assad in the last few years, this not only marks a change of tone and direction but a new reality that includes a basket of challenges and opportunities. Safadi’s visit is emblematic of Jordan’s pragmatic foreign policy approach towards its northern neighbor as the Syrian people and the new transitional administration chart a path forward toward rehabilitation and rebuilding.

No love lost for Assad  

Jordan has always had a tense relationship with Syria under Assad, oscillating between a cold war to intermittent thaws and displays of “brotherly togetherness” that were dictated mainly by the crisis du jour facing the Hashemite kingdom or the region.

Since the Arab uprisings unfolded across the region in 2010–2011, shaking the foundations of Assad’s rule in Syria and marking the beginning of the revolution turned civil war, Jordan was watching very closely as it also grappled with its own waves of protests and public anger. As Assad unleashed violence against his own people, hundreds of Syrians started fleeing daily, resulting in forced internal and external displacement to neighboring countries of nearly half its population. Jordan kept its borders open at the time and, to date, hosts over a million Syrians, half of which are registered with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). Thousands of Syrian children and teens living in Jordan today were born there, either in a refugee camp or local host communities.

During the 14 years of conflict in Syria that kept the Assad regime in power and left the country torn apart by war, Jordan had to grapple with myriad challenges emanating from its northern neighbor, with which it shares a 375-kilometer border. These included the threat of Da’esh (ISIS), which became acerbically personal when Jordanian Airforce pilot Muath al-Kaseasbeh was captured and burnt alive by ISIS terrorists, the smuggling of weapons and drugs, including Captagon that further enriched the Assad regime, and the security threat from pro-Iranian militias along the border that upped their game against Jordan, particularly in the aftermath of Hamas’ October 7 attacks in Israel and mostly in the form of smuggling weapons into Jordan.

Additionally, there was a significant impact on Jordan’s economy that cannot be understated given the added responsibility of servicing Syrian refugees in Jordan’s public health and education systems, as well as the loss of trade and economic ties. According to a Jordan Strategy Forum paper, Jordanian-Syrian trade peaked between 2004 and 2011 at around 500 million USD during some of these years, adding that restoring these bilateral trade relations has immense potential in the near future given their “geographical significance…as critical land corridors for exports destined for Asia, particularly Gulf countries, from Europe and Turkey.”

Challenges unfold

The fall of Assad at the hands of an Islamist rebel group, HTS, has certainly caused some jitters across the region. HTS not only emerged victorious as a Syrian national group but also as an Islamist group, with scores of Muslim Brotherhood affiliates across the world congratulating them for this historic win. Many governments across the MENA region have had their fair share of tensions, to put it very lightly, with the Muslim Brotherhood. In Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, in addition to being banned, the group is designated a terrorist organization. In Jordan, the relationship with the brotherhood is dicey, but they are allowed to operate politically in the form of the Islamic Action Front (IAF). 

While the IAF may feel empowered by the rise of HTS in Syria and its recent win in Jordan’s parliament, this is not the Jordanian government’s first rodeo with the brotherhood. The government has managed to keep it in check, adding pressure if and when needed to curb its Islamist ambitions, especially if its followers become violent.

Further, it is noteworthy that Al Shara, HTS’ leader, reassured Arab countries in the region that the Syrian revolution would not be exported elsewhere. He told Al Sharq Al Awsat newspaper ten days after Assad’s fall that “Syria will not be a platform for attacking or worrying any Arab or Gulf country under any circumstances.” It is a clear message to the IAF and other brotherhood affiliates that HTS will not support such efforts. It was also a critical move in opening the door for diplomacy with Jordan and other Arab countries, which is already underway. 

As Safadi noted during his trip to Damascus, ISIS remains a threat to Jordan, as well as Syria and the region. This is a point of agreement and cooperation with the United States, which provides significant support to Jordan’s military for counterterrorism as well as border security. 

While the threat of pro-Iranian elements has been diminished as Iran’s regional proxies in Syria have been severely compromised, particularly in the last few months, Iran’s regional ambitions remain a threat to Jordan. However, in the new Syria, Jordan can find an ally in ensuring Iran’s tentacles do not reach either country. That is a new opportunity that the Jordanian government can and should capitalize on.

The flight of the beneficiaries of Syria’s illicit drug trade, which was estimated at 5 billion USD in 2021, does not completely rule out the end of smuggling into Jordan. This past week, the anti-narcotics department in Jordan announced six varying operations that resulted in the capture of drugs (4,000 narcotic pills) and weapons and led to the arrest of 12 drug dealers. This is certainly another key area that will require cooperation between the new leadership in Syria and Jordan, especially given the risk that this illicit yet profitable business may feed other sleeper terrorist cells in the country.

As Syrians and the transitional administration work to rehabilitate and rebuild, Jordan can lend its support in transferring knowledge and expertise and deploying its robust construction sector to be part of reconstruction efforts. 

Opportunities ahead

There is also a plethora of opportunities for Jordan in this new post-Assad geopolitical dynamic. First, as Syrians and the transitional administration work to rehabilitate and rebuild, Jordan can lend its support in transferring knowledge and expertise and deploying its robust construction sector to be part of reconstruction efforts. 

There are also affluent and entrepreneurial Jordanian families of Syrian descent that have been part of the Jordanian as well as the Syrian societal fabric for over a hundred years. They can be a natural bridge for economic exchanges. Restoring trade ties with Syria could “alleviate domestic economic pressures while fostering long-term trade and development.” This not only benefits Jordan but is part of Jordan’s support for the Syrian people in “rebuilding their state,” as Safadi noted in Damascus.

Moreover, the gradual return of Syrian refugees currently in Jordan will help alleviate some of the economic and energy pressures the country is facing. The Jordanian minister of interior reportedly noted that the Jaber crossing with Syria is open for Syrian families and individuals who wish to return, reiterating that there will not be any forced flow of people back to Syria. To date, according to Jordanian media, 3,106 Syrian refugees returned to their country since Assad fell. While this outflow will take time as conditions gradually improve in Syria, as people hope, the UNHCR MENA Director noted that one million Syrian refugees are expected to return home voluntarily in the first half of 2025. 

Lastly, there is the long-awaited return of Jordanians from Syrian prisons, which has brought tears of joy and so much hope to those families whose loved ones were in a dark hole for years. One of them, Osama Bataineh, was imprisoned for 38 years. The images of his return to his family and the interviews with other Jordanian former detainees in Syria shed a bright light on the ghastly brutality of the Assad regime and reinforce why this new dawn presents an important political horizon for Jordan. 

Syria’s neighbors must capitalize on this opportunity by supporting Syrians to own the journey forward and carve out a future for generations that have paid a hefty price for their freedom and homeland.

The views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center.