A blog of the Latin America Program
Q: On February 18, Brazilian prosecutors charged former President Jair Bolsonaro with overseeing an aborted scheme to poison Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and retain power despite losing the 2022 election. The charges were not unexpected, and Bolsonaro was already banned from running in 2026. Still, this feels like a big deal, no?
A: The indictments were expected. Still, this is a major development. The former president is facing charges of criminal conspiracy and an attempted coup d’état. Politically, this is excellent news for Lula, and for Bolsonaro’s conservative rivals.
Q: Is Bolsonaro going to be arrested? After all, his former running mate has been in jail since December for his alleged role in the same coup plot.
A: Bolsonaro will not be arrested immediately. Although the Prosecutor General’s Office has formally charged him, there are several steps before a potential trial. First, Supreme Court Chief Justice Alexandre de Moraes must decide whether to accept the charges and hold a trial. Even if Bolsonaro is convicted, he could appeal. In the meantime, he is likely to remain free.
Q: The details of the alleged conspiracy are terrifying, and the Oscar-nominated “I’m Still Here” was a reminder of the role the Brazilian armed forces have played in politics in the past. How sturdy is Brazil’s democracy?
A: Brazil’s democracy has proven resilient, but its struggle with military influence is far from over. The military’s influence became stronger under Bolsonaro, as we saw in the role of senior military leaders in the January 8 attacks. Brazil’s judiciary has increased accountability, and challenges to the Amnesty Law are gaining traction, promising potential prosecutions of human rights abuses during the dictatorship. Whether these measures will dismantle old power structures is the key question for Brazil’s democratic future.
Q: Bolsonaro was in office the last time President Trump was in the White House and he has strong ties to US conservatives. Meanwhile, in addition to its pursuit of Bolsonaro, Brazil's powerful Supreme Court has locked horns with Elon Musk. What does all this mean for US-Brazil relations?
A: If Bolsonaro’s legal troubles escalate and become a focal point for US conservatives, diplomatic strains will follow. More than portraying Bolsonaro as a martyr, framing the Supreme Court chief justice as a villain seems to be the priority for the US president’s allies, turning Brazil’s judiciary into a political target.
Author
Latin America Program
The Wilson Center’s prestigious Latin America Program provides non-partisan expertise to a broad community of decision makers in the United States and Latin America on critical policy issues facing the Hemisphere. The Program provides insightful and actionable research for policymakers, private sector leaders, journalists, and public intellectuals in the United States and Latin America. To bridge the gap between scholarship and policy action, it fosters new inquiry, sponsors high-level public and private meetings among multiple stakeholders, and explores policy options to improve outcomes for citizens throughout the Americas. Drawing on the Wilson Center’s strength as the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum, the Program serves as a trusted source of analysis and a vital point of contact between the worlds of scholarship and action. Read more
Brazil Institute
The Brazil Institute—the only country-specific policy institution focused on Brazil in Washington—aims to deepen understanding of Brazil’s complex landscape and strengthen relations between Brazilian and US institutions across all sectors. Read more
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