Long-peaceful Ecuador is now South America’s most violent nation. Fortunately, its citizens still have faith in electoral solutions to the narcotics-driven violence and corruption tearing apart Ecuador’s social fabric and governing institutions.

Eighty-two percent of eligible voters showed up February 9 to select the 151 members of the unicameral National Assembly and pick a presidential candidate from among 16 options. Most chose either President Daniel Noboa or his leftist opponent, Luisa González, with each garnering 44% of the vote. Similarly, their political parties attracted 80% of the vote in total, meaning the next president will need the support of ten or so members of other parties to pass legislation. Ecuador’s April 13 presidential runoff will be a rerun of the October 2023 contest, when the two former one-term Assembly members competed to finish the term of former President Guillermo Lasso.

“Eighty-two percent of eligible voters showed up February 9 to select the 151 members of the unicameral National Assembly and pick a presidential candidate from among 16 options. Most chose either President Daniel Noboa or his leftist opponent, Luisa González, with each garnering 44% of the vote.” 

González, 47, is a longtime confidante of Rafael Correa, Ecuador’s socialist president from 2007 to 2017. Correa is on the lam, after being sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption. But his party, now known as the Revolución Ciudadana, remains popular, thanks in part to memories of Correa’s generous social welfare spending made possible by high oil prices and Chinese loans.

Noboa, 37, is the heir to the nation’s largest banana fortune. But his brief presidency has been defined by the fight against organized crime. As violence reached new terrifying heights within weeks of his November 2023 inauguration, he declared a state of internal armed conflict, classifying 18 narcotics gangs as terrorist organizations and deploying the military to back up the police.

He also took the unpopular steps of raising taxes and reducing subsidies for gasoline, and he was third consecutive president to turn to the International Monetary Fund for support. Meanwhile, an extended drought disrupted hydroelectric plants, leading to monthslong blackouts that at times lasted 12 hours a day. The economy is sluggish and homicide rates are still high. In his campaign, he promises security, law and order, and job creation.

Ecuador’s fate, however, does not rest only on the results of the presidential election.

The murder of 2023 presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio led Attorney General Diana Salazar to launch a sprawling investigation into organized crime’s links to Ecuador’s courts and government. The evidence she collected, and in many cases shared online, included thousands of text messages that demonstrated links between jailed drug traffickers and public officials.

The “Metastasis” case led to the arrest and prosecution of dozens of judicial, prosecutorial, prison, and police authorities, and implicated close Correa associates. A number of them have fled to Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela. Last April, Noboa ordered a police raid on Mexico’s Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, Correa’s longtime vice president, after the Metastasis investigation documented bribes that allowed Glas to leave prison and take refuge in the Mexican Embassy.

“The ‘Metastasis’ case led to the arrest and prosecution of dozens of judicial, prosecutorial, prison, and police authorities, and implicated close Correa associates. Now, however, the future of Ecuador’s fight against corruption is up in the air.”

Now, however, the future of Ecuador’s fight against corruption is up in the air. Should González win in April, Correa and his top lieutenants would likely return to the country. Meanwhile, Salazar’s six-year term ends April 8, days before the presidential runoff. That means the next president will nominate candidates to replace her.

With the nation of 18 million at a crossroads, the policies and priorities of both the next president attorney general will have profound and long-lasting impacts on Ecuador’s politics, economics, and security. The high turnout this month was a good sign. But should this electoral process frustrate an already impatient public, many might “vote with their feet,” exacerbating Ecuador’s already-high levels of irregular migration.