Mediation and Negotiations in the Horn of Africa

The Wilson Center Africa Program, in partnership with the Institute for Peace and Security Studies at Addis Ababa University and the Southern Voices Network for Peacebuilding (SVNP), recently convened the 2025 Southern Voices Network for Peacebuilding Regional Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The conference, themed "Mediation and Negotiations in the Horn of Africa," brought together regional experts, diplomats, and practitioners for small-group, in-depth conversations examining critical peace processes and mediation efforts across the region. 

Over the past two years, conflict dynamics in the Horn of Africa have evolved dramatically. The Ethiopia-Tigray Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, commonly known as the Pretoria Agreement, was signed in November 2022, marking the end of the two-year war in Tigray. However, tensions have recently been rising, and ongoing conflicts continue in the Amhara and Oromia regions of Ethiopia. Months later, in April 2023, fighting erupted in Sudan, resulting in an ongoing humanitarian crisis and limited success toward a negotiated ceasefire. In January 2024, the announcement of the Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding, which would grant Ethiopian naval forces access to twenty kilometers of Somaliland's coastline in return for formal recognition, vastly increased regional tensions. These tensions have subsided as a result of Turkish-led mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia in December 2024, but ongoing efforts to strengthen relations are needed. These events have dramatically changed local and geopolitical conflict dynamics. 

In the region, dialogue and mediation efforts have proven able not only to arrest ongoing conflicts but also to avert their outbreak. Bringing together this distinguished network of peace and security experts provided a unique platform to share processes, experiences, and lessons learned across sectors, advancing the efficacy of and exploring options for conflict mitigation and resolution.  

Over two days, the regional conference specifically focused on:  

• Ethiopian mediation efforts that led to the Pretoria agreement and the ongoing Ethiopian National Dialogue processes. 
• Insights into the Turkish-led Somalia-Somaliland talks and discussion of the Federal Government of Somalia’s dialogues with Federal Member States and stated openness to negotiations with non-state armed groups.  
• Perspectives on the humanitarian access negotiations co-hosted by the US, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland, and perspectives on civilian-engaged negotiations processes.     

Overarching Themes 

Several key themes emerged throughout the conference: 

• The importance of "intangibles" in mediation, such as mediator positionality, ripeness for mediation, and trust-building. 
• Creative modes of ensuring different parties and local actors can input into negotiation processes. 
• Changing international dynamics and increasing engagement from middle powers as mediators and guarantors 
• The influence of statebuilding and state consolidation processes on conflicts and negotiations 
• The need to strengthen Africa's multilateral bodies for more effective mediation 
• The critical importance of understanding local context, politics, and political economy