Azerbaijan and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia: Foreign Policy Strategies, Caspian Energy Security, and Great Power Politics

At a 14 October 2008 lecture, Elkhan Nuriyev, Director, Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and former Short-Term Scholar, Kennan Institute, discussed Azerbaijan's foreign policy and the challenges which it confronts. Nuriyev described Azerbaijan as a pivotal country in the Caucasus. It has the largest population in the region, and, Nuriyev said, the fastest growing economy in the world. A secular Muslim nation, Azerbaijan geographically straddles the border between East and West. It possesses important oil and natural gas resources, which enhances its global importance.

According to Nuriyev, Azerbaijan enjoys positive relations with near and distant powers, including Turkey, Iran, Russia, the United States, and the European Union. He categorized Azerbaijan's relations with Russia as a "strategic partnership." He noted that Azerbaijan is working on an EU Action Plan as a path to attracting non-oil investment in the Azeri economy. Azerbaijan also cooperates with the United States on a range of issues, including counter-terrorism, international crime and trafficking, energy, and democratic development.

Nuriyev described Azerbaijan's foreign policy as a delicate balance between pursuing national interests, restoring territorial integrity, and expanding its international influence. Of these factors, Nuriyev stated, Azerbaijan's most important challenge is the resolution of the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh, considered by Nuriyev to be an integral part of Azerbaijan, is currently occupied by Armenian forces in support of the local Armenian population in the region.

Nuriyev outlined three conditions which Azerbaijan views as essential for the resolution of the conflict: 1) all Armenian troops must depart the region; 2) all captured territory must be restored to Azerbaijan; and 3) local populations that fled the region during the conflict must be allowed to return. Once these conditions are met, Azerbaijan is prepared to grant Nagorno-Karabakh autonomy within Azerbaijan. Nuriyev stressed that while Azerbaijan will not settle for less than the complete fulfillment of these conditions, it is committed to resolving the conflict peacefully within the context of the Minsk Group process and other international efforts aimed at a nonviolent settlement. Nuriyev added that the ultimate success of negotiations depends on the involvement of major powers and organizations, including Russia, the United States, the EU, and the OSCE.

With its importance as an energy producer and transit nation, Nuriyev concluded, Azerbaijan is the "Caspian Keystone." He stressed that Azerbaijan's energy riches and strategic location give it the opportunity to diversify its economy away from energy. At present, Azerbaijani leadership is formulating a new comprehensive strategy aimed at bringing about drastic political change and extensive economic modernization of the society. Azerbaijan is pursuing trade networks with regional and non-regional states in its efforts to integrate with the global economy. In Nuriyev's view, that process of integration will be important in keeping Azerbaijan on the right developmental path and in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict over time.