Challenges in the Mediterranean Region: Terrorism, Conflict, and Refugees

Three experts discussed the 2016 edition of the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) Mediterranean Yearbook and offered analysis on the main challenges the region is facing: the never-ending war in Syria, the European Union crisis, terrorist threats in Middle East and Europe, and the unresolved humanitarian and refugee crises.

On November 18, 2016 the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center and IEMed hosted the event “Challenges in the Mediterranean Region: Terrorism, Conflict, and Refugees” with Rosa Balfour, Senior Fellow, Europe Program, German Marshall Fund; Senén Florensa, Executive President, IEMed; and Jennifer Jefferis, Associate Professor, Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, moderated the event.

Florensa began his remarks by giving an overview of the work IEMed does on Mediterranean affairs, including the promotion of economic prosperity and dialogue among the many peoples in the region. He then discussed the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook, which is comprised of three sections: the Key section, which tackles the broad issues of Syria, Terrorism in Europe, Turkey, and EU Standing the Mediterranean Test from a variety of angles; the Dossier section, which features analysis on the theme of the Refugee Crisis; and the Panorama section, which includes work from over 60 authors on security, politics, and culture. The yearbook identifies complexities of relevant issues, such as Russia’s recent actions in the international arena and the mixed results of the Arab Spring. Florensa concluded by saying that U.S. and European think tanks must work together more frequently to enhance the complementarity of their approaches in tackling the issues facing complex regions.

Balfour applauded the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook, and then posited her argument: the Mediterranean region is a space of fragmentation, but it is also very interdependent. She identified various events that prove this interdependence. The first was the financial crisis that impacted the Eurozone, which had effects on southern Europe, the trade flows across MENA which underpinned the Arab Spring, and the EU’s ability to project stability since then. The second indicator she recognized was the Syrian conflict, specifically the influx of refugees into the EU from Syria and Iraq. The EU was left in “total chaos and disorder.” She cited ways member states have tried to pass their refugee responsibility onto Turkey by making deals about accelerated negotiations for Turkey’s admission into the EU and visa liberalization for Turkish citizens. To conclude, she prescribed that the EU make new migration agreements with countries in MENA, which would lead to economic stabilization, better governance, and better refugee management and support.

Jefferis discussed factors that have changed in the MENA region that have led to uncertainty in the Mediterranean region. The first factor was the Arab Spring, and consequentially the decreased space for opposition and the altered relationship between religion and state. The second factor she identified was the Syrian conflict, which she claimed has exacerbated both religious and political tensions in the region and because of the refugee crisis. The third factor she advanced was the impact of declining oil prices on spending habits in the Gulf, which directly impacts the Mediterranean region. Lastly, she cited the United States’s changing role and alliances in the region as adding to the uncertainty of the region.

In the question and answer portion of the event, Barkey asked how the Mediterranean region will be affected if the Syrian crisis continues. Florensa explained that this is quite possible due to the lack of coordination among parties, the regional factors that feed the conflict with money and arms, and the superpowers present in the region as well, like the United States and Russia. It is at this level that a solution must be made. Barkey asked Balfour if the EU could handle another influx of refugees. She said the EU was fragile to begin with, yet its fragility was exacerbated by Brexit and the election of President-elect Trump. For example if the United States were to offer a trade deal with the UK, they would abandon the EU, which would lead to further instability.

By Vanessa Sorrentino, Middle East Program