Humanitarian Challenges and the Mosul Offensive

Two experts discussed the humanitarian, political, and military impacts of the fight to retake the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul.

On November 18, 2016 the Middle East Program and Environmental Change and Security Program at the Wilson Center hosted the event “Humanitarian Challenges and the Mosul Offensive” with Kelly T. Clements, United Nations Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees, and Lukman Faily, former Iraqi Ambassador to the United States. Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, moderated the event.

Clements shared the latest on the mass displacement resulting from the Mosul offensive and what this means for countries in the region as refugees flee from one area of conflict to another. At the beginning of the Mosul offensive, there were an estimated 3.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Iraq and 0.5 million Syrian refugees in northern Iraq. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) knew the Mosul offensive was coming but did not know when it would occur, which created more challenges in terms of response and access once it was underway. Currently over 10 million civilians in Iraq are in need of some humanitarian aid, while 700,000 civilians are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance due to displacement. Nearly 60,000 people have been displaced by the offensive. For those who want to return to Mosul, there are numerous security concerns. There are also concerns regarding the treatment of civilians, exemplified by reports of ISIS using civilians as human shields, as well as concerns for the treatment of minority populations. The impending winter has created urgency to provide assistance as well. Clements concluded by stating the UNHCR is preparing for more displacements and to aid more people as the weather worsens.

Faily provided analysis of the political-military impact of the Mosul campaign. He began his remarks by asserting that Iraqis by nature do not like to be displaced, because they find it inherently “shameful.” He then argued the geopolitical sense of urgency of this issue needs to be emphasized to the Iraqi government, and noted the contributions by the United States and the United Nations. Faily, like Clements, highlighted ISIS’s disregard for human life by using civilians as human shields. He explained that the domestic issues Iraq is facing are inter-tribal and not sectarian as many think. This has an effect on both the treatment and displacement of minorities, most notably Shi’a and Yazidis. Faily also said the median age of refugees is 19 years old; although they may have energy and durability, he indicated they also have aspirations and goals which are not being met. A major concern is that through their access to social media, these young refugees can learn about the various armed groups they can join. Faily also discussed oil prices as a factor for the worsening condition of Mosul, indicating that the government does not have any money to contribute to the refugee crisis. He concluded by noting the current humanitarian crisis is not a new phenomenon, but Iraq needs support to alleviate these pains.

In the question and answer portion of the event, Barkey asked Clements how the UNHCR prepares for winter and for long-run humanitarian needs more generally. Clements noted that winter preparations have been underway for months, which includes obtaining different types of shelter such as insulated tents and relief items such as heaters and warm clothing. She also noted that there are a significant number of children and young people who are refugees, which makes emergency education part of the UNHCR’s primary response. They hope to keep normalcy in place as much as possible. Barkey asked Faily what would be the worst case scenario going forward. He responded that Mosul is not the last battleground—ISIS is capable of destroying other communities. He said a political battle also exists in the Iraqi leadership, and a majority of people do not see those elected as their true representatives. He warned that the worst case scenario would be if the international community moves on after Mosul. He also feared a larger humanitarian crisis will persist after the battle of Mosul caused by the widespread distrust among Iraqis, some of whose neighbors are affiliated with ISIS. He called for reconstruction to repair this distrust within the nation.

By Vanessa Sorrentino, Middle East Program