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Will the opposition in Japan ever get a chance to rule? Judging from results of September's lower-house election, that day is as far away as ever. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics for half a century except for nine months in 1993, won a landslide victory. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which seemed to be making steady progress in recent years, lost 64 seats. Predictions that Japan is moving toward a two-party state seem to have been discredited.

However, the three panelists contended that the LDP's victory may not prove durable. Aiji Tanaka pointed out, for example, that much support for the LDP in the recent election came from Japan's "independent voters," who have no fixed party affiliation and are prone to sudden and frequent changes in voting patterns. The numbers of these voters have doubled since 1990, and the LDP cannot count on their support. They may well switch to the Democratic Party if they see a likely candidate.

How did the LDP manage to attract these voters, at least temporarily? Tanaka and Leonard Schoppa agreed that there is no one explanation. First, Prime Minister Koizumi's political talents continued to shine, and his pro-reform message sounded clear and straightforward to voters. The LDP's future depends on its ability to produce a similarly skilled successor, since Koizumi is required by his party to step down next year. Whether the party can find "another Koizumi" is questionable.

Koizumi does not deserve all the credit for the LDP's victory. He has benefited from structural changes in the voting system that date back to the early 1990s, especially the switch to single-member districts. As explained by Schoppa, single-member districts tend to exaggerate vote swings—a small increase in votes can result in a big increase in parliamentary seats. This time around the LDP reaped the benefits of such a system, but next time the DPJ may benefit instead.

Patricia MacLachlan discussed postal system reform, which was the main issue of the recent election. Koizumi, who has been urging postal privatization for years, now has the public mandate he was seeking. However, due to resistance from the LDP's inner circle, he was forced to make a number of compromises that diluted his reform plan. Moreover, whether Koizumi can manage to launch similar reforms in other areas of the economy is doubtful. For postal privatization to have a reverberating effect, Koizumi must work quickly, MacLachlan contended.

During the question-answer period, the panelists covered a wide range of topics, including Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni shrine, which honors Japan's war dead, and in which class-A war criminals (among others) are enshrined. The three panelists agreed that visits to Yasukuni show a lack of "common sense" in that they hurt relations with South Korea and China. If Koizumi's successor, too, takes to visiting Yasukuni, Japan's foreign policy could be severely compromised for a long time to come.

Drafted by Amy McCreedy Thernstrom, Asia Program Associate
Robert M. Hathaway, Director, Asia Program, Ph: (202) 691-4020