Three experts shared their analysis on the origins of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the influence of its leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

On October 21, 2015, the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted the event “The Rise of ISIS from Regional Terror to Global Threat” with Joby Warrick, former Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center, correspondent, Washington Post, winner of the Pulitzer Prize, and author of Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS; and Henri J. Barkey, Director of the Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center. Kim Ghattas, International Affairs Correspondent, BBC and author of, The Secretary: A Journey with Hillary Clinton from Beirut to the Heart of American Power, moderated the event. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO of the Woodrow Wilson Center, provided opening remarks and commented on the relevance and engaging style of Warrick’s recently released book.    

Warrick began by describing his book as a collection of narratives about ISIS’s founding generation. According to Warrick, the messages and techniques ISIS uses today originated from the practices of a jihadist group run by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian who took part in and orchestrated terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Jordan, and Iraq from the late 1990s to 2006. Warrick believes Zarqawi’s brash, passionate, and ruthless attitude made him highly appealing to the disaffected Ba’athists and radical Islamists under his command during the Iraqi insurgency. He stated that Zarqawi became an inspirational figure around the world, and despite his death in 2006, Zarqawi’s influence and ideology has remained deep-seated throughout the region. The chaos of the Arab uprisings gave Zarqawi’s followers the opportunity to reorganize and resume their operations under a new name—ISIS.

Warrick noted that the establishment of ISIS was the result of the prolonged combination of three factors: the long history of sectarian conflict and dictatorial rule throughout the Middle East, various missteps and mistakes from outside influences, and the ingrained influence of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Ghattas, Barkey, and Warrick further discussed these three contributing factors.  

The panel attributed the quick dissolution of governmental authority in the region to the history of dictatorial regimes’ dependence on violence to retain legitimacy. Once these regimes lost legitimacy, there were few institutions in place to support continued governance and ISIS was able to effectively fill the power vacuum in Syria and Iraq. On the possibility of strengthening future governance and security throughout the MENA region, Barkey said legitimacy in governance needs to develop through a ground-up rejuvenation of society by first developing power in local authorities. 

Ghattas then asked Warrick about how outside powers’ missteps helped facilitate the rise of ISIS. In response, Warrick explained that the United States gave Zarqawi sudden international fame before the invasion of Iraq when they falsely identified Zarqawi as the crucial link between al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein. Warrick also mentioned how the United States lost key access to intelligence when it left Iraq in 2011.

The panel discussed Warrick’s extensive use of sources for his book Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS. Warrick described his access to individuals that were associated with Zarqawi and the beginnings of his movement. These sources were able to describe Zarqawi’s personality and his ability to command loyalty. Barkey commented that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the current leader of ISIS, shares the same capability to inspire followers. Ghattas pointed out that Zarqawi and Baghdadi also served time in prisons, which—according to Warrick—were so harsh and poorly run that they acted as jihadist training schools rather than institutions of de-radicalization.

During the question and answer portion of the event, Warrick responded to a question from Harman on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by saying ISIS treats this issue as one of secondary concern. The Ambassador of Jordan commented on the importance of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in limiting the spread of jihadist ideology around the region and around the world.

By: Nathan Odendahl