Turkey: Parliamentary Elections and their Aftermath

Three experts on Turkey discussed the June 7 parliamentary elections, looking at the results and how these will affect Turkish domestic and foreign policy in the months to come.

On June 9, 2015, the Middle East Program and Global Europe Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted the event “Turkey: Parliamentary Elections and their Aftermath,” with Henri Barkey, Former Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center, and Bernard and Bertha Cohen Professor of International Relations, Department of International Relations, Lehigh University; Steven Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; and Gönül Tol, Founding Director, Center for Turkish Studies, Middle East Institute. Haleh Esfandiari, Director of the Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center, moderated the event and provided introductory remarks.

Barkey explained that the results of the election came as a surprise because many observers assumed that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would hold its majority in the Turkish parliament. He discussed the rise of the Kurdish-based People’s Democratic Party (HDP) which surpassed the 10 percent threshold required to enter parliament. He noted HDP’s strong turnout even in unexpected regions and demographics, citing strategic voting on the part of voters with strong anti-AKP sentiments. Barkey explained that the election was an unofficial referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s proposed constitutional reform to expand the powers of the presidency. He asserted that Erdoğan’s mistake part passing up the opportunity to change the 10 percent threshold rule, which allowed HDP to rally supporters. This decision led to a polarized environment surrounding the elections.

Tol spoke on the Kurdish factor in the elections noting that HDP’s leader Selahattin Demirtaş had emerged as a charismatic and effective leader. She explained that HDP was able to sweep the Kurdish regions, while also appealing to liberals and both Turkish and Kurdish youth. She emphasized that Demirtaş would face many challenges in balancing this diverse constituency. She noted an overall surge in Kurdish pride, which could force HDP to take on a more explicitly pro-Kurdish tone. She also stated that HDP needs to address the younger generation, which is in danger of being radicalized.

Cook commented on AKP’s success since its inception and maintained that the party and Erdoğan would remain the most powerful actors in Turkish politics. He asserted that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) was the biggest winner of the election, having secured themselves a place in any coalition. He agreed with Barkey that AKP’s loss of seats is a rejection of Erdoğan’s moves to centralize power and hollow out Turkey’s political institutions.

During the question and answer portion of the event, Esfandiari asked what possible coalition governments could form. Cook emphasized a return to political instability, noting that most coalitions would not be able to last. Tol asserted the importance of the impending corruption charges against Erdoğan, no matter what coalition formed. Tol then responded to a question on a possible AKP-HDP alliance by noting that Demirtaş had ruled that out. When asked about Turkey’s foreign policy, all three panelists anticipated that foreign policy would not visibly change because Erdoğan’s essentially controls it. Barkey asserted that the structures in place to provide arms and people to Syria are now too entrenched for any coalition government to reverse. All three panelists also agreed that the Saudi-Qatari-Turkish alliance would probably remain intact, as would U.S.-Turkish relations. Tol articulated that the war in Syria has now become a domestic issue in Turkey, and was debated throughout the election. Esfandiari concluded by asking which party combinations were the most likely to be accepted by Erdoğan. Cook mentioned a AKP-MHP alliance, while Tol and Barkey noted that an AKP-CHP alliance was very unlikely. Barkey explained a minority government was also a possibility, even if only for the short-term.

By Jill Ricotta, Middle East Program