Upheaval in the Middle East: What Is the Turkish Strategy?
As a predominantly-Muslim democracy, ally of the West, a booming market economy and emerging “soft power”, Turkey has long been identified as a model for the political transformation in the Middle East. However, once the revolutions began, Turkey’s ability to contribute to democracy and stabilization appeared more limited than many thought.
Overview
As a predominantly-Muslim democracy, ally of the West, a booming market economy and emerging “soft power”, Turkey has long been identified as a model for the political transformation in the Middle East. However, once the revolutions began, Turkey’s ability to contribute to democracy and stabilization appeared more limited than many thought. Semih Idiz and Ian Lesser explained that Turkey’s longstanding business interests in Libya, Syria and Egypt made it difficult for the country to side with the revolutionaries or for the Middle East civil society groups to trust Turkey as an impartial arbiter.
Another factor that has made it difficult for Turkey to intervene in the Middle East revolutions is their diversity. Semih Idiz noted that the Turkish government has had a difficult time creating a uniform response to the revolutions. Idiz argued that each revolution should be evaluated individually by Turkish policymakers in order to determine any changes in the country’s foreign policy. Without a clear set of values to follow, however, Turkey may ultimately put its commercial interests and personal relationships with leaders first, as seems to be the case in Bashar Al-Assad in Syria or Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. Turkey’s inability to build a strong foreign policy, Idiz said, could diminish Turkey’s influence in the world.
Without Turkey’s model of Islamic democracy to follow, Idiz warned, citizens participating in the revolutions may allow radicals to fill the leadership vacuum and settle for something less than full democracy. In place of Turkey, however, Idiz hoped that Egypt might break through to become a model for the other countries to follow, though its revolution remains far from settled.
Turkey has been fostering relationships with its neighbors in the Middle East for many years, which had contributed to the expectation that it would hold a position of influence the Middle East, Ian Lesser said. However, event Turkey’s role in NATO showed that it values maintaining the status quo. Lesser contended, that Turkey should no longer rely on a commercially-driven foreign policy if it wants to become a regional power.
By Andri Orphanides and Elise AlexanderEdited by Nida GelazisChristian Ostermann, Director, European Studies and History and Public Policy Program
The event was co-sponsored by the Turkish Policy Quarterly, with the support from the Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation.
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Global Europe Program
The Global Europe Program is focused on Europe’s capabilities, and how it engages on critical global issues. We investigate European approaches to critical global issues. We examine Europe’s relations with Russia and Eurasia, China and the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. Our initiatives include “Ukraine in Europe” – an examination of what it will take to make Ukraine’s European future a reality. But we also examine the role of NATO, the European Union and the OSCE, Europe’s energy security, transatlantic trade disputes, and challenges to democracy. The Global Europe Program’s staff, scholars-in-residence, and Global Fellows participate in seminars, policy study groups, and international conferences to provide analytical recommendations to policy makers and the media. Read more
History and Public Policy Program
The History and Public Policy Program makes public the primary source record of 20th and 21st century international history from repositories around the world, facilitates scholarship based on those records, and uses these materials to provide context for classroom, public, and policy debates on global affairs. Read more
Middle East Program
The Wilson Center’s Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Read more
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