Lebanon Rocked by Surprise Attack Utilizing Exploding Walkie-Talkies and Pagers
A series of deadly explosions in Lebanon on back-to-back days has killed nearly 40 and injured thousands more, including children, an Iranian diplomat, and members of Hezbollah. The explosions of electronic devices, triggered remotely, happened almost simultaneously across the country. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the attacks, but Israel has not yet commented. The AP reports that: “An American official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Israel briefed the US on the operation — where small amounts of explosives hidden in the pagers were detonated.” The incident has increased fears of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, further complicating an already tense situation.
Wilson Center Global Fellow Joe Macaron provides analysis of the impact of the attacks. He describes PM Netanyahu’s shift in focus away from Gaza to the Lebanese border and the impact this latest development could have on Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations.
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Lebanon Rocked by Surprise Attack Utilizing Exploding Walkie-Talkies and Pagers
This attack is unprecedented in many ways. It targets the Hezbollah communications. It goes, as we say, behind, enemy lines. They didn't see it coming. So basically, the timing, the scope of the attack, transform how this war is, how this conflict has been conducted so far.
Netanyahu has been scaling down the troops in Gaza and moving them to the Lebanese border, which means that it's shifting focus. But, so far he is not prioritizing the ceasefire in Gaza. And this is why he's basically running away from negotiations.
Because neither Hezbollah nor Israel are interested in an open confrontation. It’s very costly for both sides.
But they want to keep tension on this border. It benefits both sides somehow. But yeah, I don't see, how what happened in Lebanon will help the ceasefire in Gaza. But again, the ceasefire has their own dynamics and, the internal obstacle in these talks are far more important than any Israeli attack on Hezbollah.
I don't think Iran has an urgency to respond. First, the attack is on Hezbollah. Iran didn’t even respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas bureau chief. So I think Iran has its own calculation now. It’s on Hezbollah now to basically lead the charge …..you have the Iranian ambassador was injured, but not killed
So I don't think Iran will be very keen for, to focus the spotlight and in many ways. But this is going to be on Hezbollah, as it was, that's essential . So I don't see that Israel has very clear objective in today's attacking role.
And Hezbollah will respond, strategically to this attack by reinforcing the same position so far.
First it is not going to disassociate the Lebanese front from the Gaza front, they are linked. And the second that they are not going to allow the settlers to return to the northern border.
And third, he basically said we can respond in the time and choose the target we want. So basically, what Hezbollah is saying that despite the attack, we're not going to change how the conflict is conducted. We're going to stay the course. And we’re going to revenge when we know. So basically, the dynamics of the border have not changed.
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