In this episode of the Need to Know, host John Milewski discusses the recent direct attack by Iran on Israel and its implications for the region with the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program Director Merissa Khurma. She provides insights into the shifting dynamics and potential consequences of this escalation, highlighting the delicate balancing act for countries like Jordan and the critical role of US leadership in pursuing de-escalation and stability.

Takeaways

Overall, the situation underscores the interconnectedness of regional conflicts and the imperative for diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and promote stability. 

1. Iran's Direct Attack on Israel: Iran's decision to launch a direct attack on Israel, instead of using proxies as it has done in the past, represents a significant escalation. This shift in strategy was triggered by Israel's attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of several leaders of the Revolutionary Guard.
2. Escalating Tensions: The attack has heightened tensions in an already volatile region. The situation has the potential to escalate into a wider conflict, drawing in neighboring countries and exacerbating existing conflicts, such as the war in Gaza and military exchanges on Israel's northern border with Lebanon.
3. Calls for Restraint: There have been international calls, including from Western governments and regional leaders, for restraint and de-escalation to prevent the situation from spiraling further out of control. The fear of a wider conflict underscores the urgency of diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions.
4. Israel's Response: Israel's response to the attack will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict. While there are hopes that Israel will heed global calls for restraint, there are concerns that further escalation could perpetuate a cycle of violence and instability, with detrimental effects for the entire region.
5. Regional Dynamics: Countries like Jordan are navigating a delicate balancing act, facing pressure from their populations while also safeguarding their own interests and maintaining stability. Jordan's decision to shoot down Iranian projectiles reflects its strategic approach to managing threats and contributing to de-escalation efforts.
6. US Role: The United States plays a crucial role in the region, particularly in mediating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and exerting influence on Israel's actions. The Biden administration has been engaged in intensive diplomacy to promote de-escalation and humanitarian efforts, emphasizing the importance of protecting civilians and facilitating aid.