#253 Retrospective Voting and Partisan Identity: The Electorate's Perspective
By Yemile Mizrahi
From the Preface
On July 2, 2000, Vicente Fox became the first Mexican President elected from the National Action Party (PAN), ending 71 years of rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). His victory capped decades of struggle by political parties on the right and left to open political space in Mexico's electoral system. The PAN had its first significant victories in the early 1980s in several northern municipal elections, and in 1989 won the first of several state governorships that consolidated its presence as a significant political force. Fox's emergence as the PAN' s presidential candidate for the 2000 elections -- and his subsequent victory -- have marked a new chapter in the party's history.
Yemile Mizrahi argues in this working paper that the PAN' s political strategy once it wins state elections does not always help its chances of staying in power. The internal dynamics of the party and its approach to politics often reduce the party's ability to appeal to the electorate in future election cycles. Traditional ways of doing politics and an over-reliance on ideology stymie attempts to consolidate the party's success at a subnational level.
This analysis is especially timely as the first Mexican President of the PAN takes power and the party seeks to redefine its role in government after decades in opposition. The challenges that the PAN faces in state elections, which are the subject of Mizrahi's analysis, may well parallel the challenges faced by the PAN nationally as one of their own assumes the presidency. This working paper should make interesting reading to anyone interested in the future of Mexico's political process and its party system.
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