Since its establishment in the 1920s following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Iraq has grappled with the complexities of addressing its diverse ethnic and religious makeup, a challenge that continues to shape its governance today. The 2003 Iraq War marked a pivotal moment, transforming a unitary, highly centralized Iraqi state to a decentralized one. The 2004 Transitional Administrative Law and the 2005 Constitution formalized this shift, spearheading provincial decentralization and the creation of autonomous regions with substantial control over their local economic, financial, legal, and security affairs. The Constitution declared the new Iraqi state to be a “republican, federal, democratic, pluralistic system,” and contained 59 references to variations of the notion of “federalism” and “decentralization.”

In this policy brief, the author reviews evidence of Baghdad's attempts to recentralize power since 2005. Through various administrative and court actions, the central government has challenged the autonomy of the Kurdistan region, Iraq's only official federal region. He also delves into past attempts to establish independent Sunni and Shia-majority regions in Salahuddin and Basra Provinces, both of which elevated to provincial councils but were ultimately dismissed by Baghdad. By looking at the shift in the balance of power, the author explains the potential geopolitical risk if Iraq walks away from federalism. 

Recommendations

1. Revive and Implement Federalism in Iraq
2. Address Sunni Grievances and Support Local Governance
3. Strengthen Kurdish Autonomy and Resolve Budget Disputes
4. Curb Destabilizing Activities by Armed Factions and Preserve Iraq’s Neutrality
5. Shias, Kurds, and Sunni Arabs Should Find Common Ground