Of Swans and Rhinos: Building Resilience in the Semiconductor Supply Chain

As semiconductor supply chains rebound after two years of disruption, the United States has taken important steps toward building resilience in the sector over the coming years. The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 allocates significant funding to incentivize private sector investment in the US semiconductor industry, as well as major long term commitments to strengthening R&D and STEM education. This paper examines the challenges of the semiconductor supply chain, the advances made by the CHIPS and Science Act, and by private companies in analyzes the remaining long-term challenges faced by both the US government and the private sector. Central to the analysis contained here is an understanding of both Black Swan and Gray Rhino risks: the challenges we don’t see coming and those that we see on the horizon but act on too slowly.