Israel Expands Operations on Multiple Fronts: Perspectives on the Conflict

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• Israel Expands Operations on Multiple Fronts: Perspectives on the Conflict

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  Hello, I'm John Milewski and this is Wilson Center, NOW, a production of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. My guest today is Merissa Khurma. Merissa is director of the Wilson Center for Middle East Program. She joins us to talk about the latest developments around the conflicts in the Middle East. Merissa, welcome back.

  
  Thanks for joining us. Thank you for having me. So this morning, Merissa the U.N. describes the situation in northern Gaza as desperate. It's delivering the first food it's been able to get into the area in more than two weeks. About 400,000 Palestinians remain in that area, speaks for itself. And to some degree. But tell us, how dire is this situation?

  
  the situation has been, you know, worsening for some time. And we may be, over the course of the last year, have seen just a few weeks here and there of improvements in food deliveries. But where we stand today and a large part of this is also due to the fact that there's so much attention being focused on the war in Lebanon that less attention has gone to what is happening in Gaza.

  
  But the the Israeli military has gone back in with various strikes in the northern part of Gaza. And that is one of the main reasons why we're not seeing any deliveries in the northern part in particular. But according to various data that has been collected by and verified by U.N. agencies, the entire population of Gaza is at risk.

  
  You have, you know, different populations that different people that have been displaced in various parts of the Gaza Strip. And so the the severity of the situation differs. But all in all, pretty much the entire population of Gaza is at risk or basically are experiencing some level of food insecurity. And this is not a situation that can be sustained for another few months or another year.

  
  So it is it is dire. And I think the international community, but particularly the United States, which has the most leverage when it comes to its key partner, Israel in the region, has to use all of its different levers in order to ensure that the innocent civilians are taken care of, that they are that food delivery trucks are being allowed in.

  
  About that about this notion that about U.S. leverage. You know, some would argue that we're finding out how little leverage that we have over Benjamin Netanyahu or is it more of a case that we have an exercise, the full leverage that is available to us? I think both sides of the story have some truth to them. The the I think firstly, this is a situation that has unfolded over the last year at various levels.

  
  So you've seen U.S. exercise various levels of pressure throughout. But one thing we know for sure is that, you know, private as well as public statesmen, it's to Prime Minister Netanyahu that would add more pressure on Israel to act or that would critique Israel's military strategy and the way that they have been going about things both in Gaza and Lebanon do not work.

  
  And and so from this standpoint, I think the entire world is watching and particularly people across the region. And they basically see the U.S. to be less influential and less credible as a result and at best complicit in what is happening. And I think that is the most dangerous, you know, consequence of this lack of movement or, you know, on on the part of the U.S. government to exercise pressure where needed.

  
  So we will have to see at the next, you know, milestone if, for example, with regards to the air strike against Iran, if U.S. advice will be heeded or not. But so far, it doesn't look like the United States has used all of its levers. And there are different considerations that, you know, are part of that calculus. But, of course, Prime Minister Netanyahu is very much aware of these considerations.

  
  And so that plays to his advantage. Yeah, I guess you're talking about the politics in the U.S. domestic politics election cycle makes it difficult to get clarity on any of these things. Exactly. In Lebanon, U.N. peacekeepers are in place. Israel has repeatedly asked them to move, but they're refusing to do so. What does that situation look like? This seems like a second front where Israel finds itself at odds with the United Nations.

  
  This is a very dangerous precedent to set. U.N. peacekeepers have to be have to be respected. Their mandate has to be respected. And, yes, the Israeli prime minister sent a direct message to U.N. secretary general in order to have UNIFIL move for the Israelis to deepen their military incursions into Lebanon. But that, again, that's a very dangerous precedent to set in the international community and further undermines the United Nations and undermines all the U.N. Security Council resolutions that will be key, if implemented, especially that the U.S. backs all of them with regards to Lebanon, to, you know, to to basically withdraw to to demarcate the border and to and to disarm Hezbollah.

  So so this is a again, a very dangerous precedent. And I think, you know, messages like this to the secretary general are not going to move the needle on this. You know, the mandate of UNIFIL is one that was set by the U.N. Security Council. And that, you know, includes the United States as a permanent member. So I think that there has to be some pushback on that and a reaffirmation of the importance of the role in Lebanon, as well as as well as the importance of upholding and respecting the various U.N. Security Council resolutions when it comes to Lebanon and Israel.

  
  The merits of the phrase, the fog of war certainly looms large in a situation like this. We have Israel Defense Forces claiming that Hezbollah is using ambulances to move fighters and other things, weapons around in southern Lebanon. An Israeli spokesperson has threatened that they're going to attack vehicles that they believe are transporting such materials or such personnel, regardless of its type, is the exact quote.

  
  How how do we find out exactly what's happening in a circumstance like this? Where is the best information? Should we just believe Israel? Israel's intelligence is rock solid in this regard. Should we believe the denials? How do we begin to sort it out? It's very difficult to believe to believe that every single ambulance is in a that is moving from one place to another in Lebanon or in Gaza, for that matter, are carrying fighters.

  Now, does Hamas and Hezbollah have they have they prioritize their their people? Absolutely not. And that has to be a reminder to to to all of us. But Israel also has to make those calculations in a more precise manner, because so far, what we're seeing are innocent civilians being targeted and killed instead and essential, the essential health infrastructure, whether it's in it's in Gaza or in Lebanon, has been completely decimated, particularly when it comes to Gaza.

  
  But we're also seeing the same thing happening in Lebanon and we're seeing the death toll and we're seeing women and children and elderly and innocent civilians being pulled out of the rubble. And that has to be how we assess what is going on. So we cannot just take these assessments at face value. And intelligence is is never 100% accurate.

  
  But but it seems that there is very little regard to human life in Lebanon or in Gaza when it comes to these. When it comes to these so-called targeted attacks, let me attempt in this horrific news to interject what was slightly some good news this week. Nearly 93,000 children receiving a polio vaccine in Gaza. And this was a moment where it seemed as if both sides were willing to at least not affect a complete ceasefire, but slow things down to a point where it was possible to get to these children.

  
  To talk about this health crisis and this potential outbreak of polio and just lately, more and more difficulty on top of what is already a horrific situation. I mean, we didn't the polio outbreak didn't happen in a vacuum. This is this is the result of decimating the health infrastructure, targeting health workers. I mean, we've just recently heard from over 60 health workers and doctors from various countries that have given their their assessment of what they have seen on the ground.

  
  And most that this was published, I think, in The New York Times. And what they have witnessed is absolutely horrific in the emergency rooms or the makeshift health centers that have been set up in Gaza. So the situation is absolutely horrific. And so in these conditions where there are there are no clean, hygienic or safe places to be, to be sheltered and to be taken care of.

  
  And where, you know, U.N. personnel and other international organizations that are on the ground are also being targeted and killed as a result of Israeli strikes. It is bound to happen. It's you know, it's not just I mean, polio is the most extreme, of course, but other diseases have also taken hold. I've spoken with officials at the International Rescue Committee a few months ago, and that was just a few months ago where we hadn't even seen the first polio outbreak yet.

  
  But they were listing a number of other health risks as well as diseases that they have been picking up on from the data coming from the field. And so this is an impossible situation for any population to endure. And just a reminder, we just marked the one year anniversary of the horrific Hamas attacks that took place, one year of a very brutal and relentless war that Israel has has waged in Gaza.

  
  So this situation is unsustainable. I mean, how can you think about what the day after looks like at this point when we are unable to even address the current situation? But yes, the polio vaccines, that is a drop in the ocean of what has to be addressed in Gaza. It is a good example of how things can work out and that goes back to the original.

  
  You know, conversation we had about the need for the United States to exercise all of its different or use all of its different tools in the foreign policy toolbox to ensure that people are not harmed. And that's the least that the United States and other members of the interest community can do. But it seems that in the international, you know, humanitarian sector, a lot of these organizations have been screaming loudly about how this humanitarian crisis back in January was just going to get worse.

  
  And look at where we are today. The war continues. We haven't seen a ceasefire or a hostage deal in place. It doesn't seem even that this is a priority anymore because now Israel is waging a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, a war that the Lebanese people did not choose. That Hezbollah pretty much made that decision on their behalf on October 8th.

  
  But those who are suffering, both in Gaza and in Lebanon, are the innocent civilians. And that is a message that we have to amplify. Speaking of amplifying voices, tell us about the work that you and the Middle East program have been doing to introduce more voices into the equation. You know, we talked about the fog of war and how difficult it is to get reliable information and know exactly what to believe.

  
  And, of course, you were talking about the U.S. and Israel, Israel having a strong alliance, a strong relationship, diplomatic ties, the kind that the U.S. obviously doesn't have with Hezbollah or Hamas or organizations like that. So we tend to see it from a certain perspective. But there are a lot of other people in the region, not just within these countries who are affected and who have the same concerns that all of us have about the potential for this even escalating into something deadlier for a larger group of people.

  
  So tell our viewers and listeners about the work you've been doing and what are some of the things that are out there that people have been saying? Well, as you know, our John, the Wilson Center is committed, you know, through its mandate to independent research and analysis. And I think our role specifically in the Middle East program during these trying times is to stay true to that mandate.

  
  But being dispassionate analysts does not mean that we also lose complete sight of what is happening on the ground to the innocent civilians and therefore highlighting the humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding in the region is critical. It's also highly important to ensure that there are diverse voices that are providing the analysis and providing different perspectives. And we are fortunate to have a very wide and diverse network of fellows and former fellows, and we're currently working on ensuring that we have more fellows with expertise on Arab-Israeli issues so that we are getting various perspectives in their various points of analysis that look at how, as you mentioned in your question, how different people are viewing the

  
  situation on the ground and how different people are reacting to the war. I think, you know, as a native Arabic speaker, I have the privilege to look at the news and read the news across the region in Arabic, but also look at Western media, whether it's from the wire services or U.S. newspapers. And the good thing about Arab media is that they're very quick at picking up what the Hebrew press is saying.

  
  And so I get to check that out as well. And I can tell you that in some instances, it feels like, you know, people in the West and people in the region are almost watching a different war unfold. And I think this has been very clear, particularly when you zoom into how the Israeli media, TV in particular, has been covering Gaza, where, you know, people are unaware of the extent of the human suffering.

  
  And even Israeli journalists themselves are saying that they're not covering that enough. And the focus is almost entirely on what the Israeli military is achieving. And on the other hand, when you look at Arab media, it's Al Jazeera, Al-Arabiya or even the local news channels that are still operating in the 22 Arab countries. You are pretty much watching scenes from Gaza, from Lebanon, interviews with people who have been displaced.

  
  And of course, in Gaza, you know, nine out of ten people have been displaced at least once or twice in Lebanon. The number of those who have been displaced so far surpasses a million. And that also includes Syrian refugees who were who had already fled, you know, the brutal civil war and the Assad regime from Syria to find safe refuge in Lebanon.

  
  And so that is what people are watching. And I think that is what is influencing public opinion. You know, to a large degree in both in both locales. And I should also mention maybe you did, but you saw our viewers and listeners catch it that a lot of the people you're talking about her providing this analysis and these viewpoints are in the region.

  
  They're actually on the ground. Yes. There are many people who are in the region. You know, writing from Lebanon, from from Jerusalem, from Tel Aviv and various parts of the region and others, of course, from Amman, Jordan, and and others, of course, with expertise in the U.S., which is also an essential point of view to highlight for those who are interested.

  
  Is this in the form of essays or videos on your website? Is that where people could find it? Yes. We've we've you know, throughout the past year, we've had, you know, different blogs and op ads that have been published for. We've also had a video series that included interviews with with people from the region, as well as as well as here in the United States, from the humanitarian sector, for example, to highlight the humanitarian crisis, from international legal experts to look at the international legal issues that are associated with with the with the war in Gaza in particular, because, as you know, there have been various cases, one at the ICC and two at the

  
  International Court of Justice against Israel. And so we've really tried to look at all the different aspects of it. And that is, you know, again, perhaps a drop and a drop in the bucket in the policymaking circles, because there's certainly a lot emerging from the region and things are shifting very, very quickly. But I think, again, going back to the to my earlier point, it's essential that we do that.

  
  And dispassionate analysis does not mean that we just sit back and and not, you know, highlight the human side of the story, which is pretty much right now at the center of what is happening. Well, you know, you're being modest, but I could say it's a terrific body of work and it really does help people get a broader perspective and dig deeper.

  
  And if people if you're interested, if you come to the Wilson Center Web site, Wilson Center dot org, at the top of the page, you'll see a programs tab. If you click on that, you'll be able to find the Middle East program. And all of the things that Marissa and I have just been talking about. Marissa, you know, you've been on the circuit.

  
  Busy would be an understatement right there. A lot of people are interested and you've been providing a lot of analysis to us and to others. And it seems like we're miles and miles away from a couple of weeks ago where we were talking hopefully about the potential for a cease fire. So I just want to ask you now as a final thought before we close this discussion, because it won't be our last in terms of maybe your best hope or your greatest fear based on where we sit right now.

  
  What do you anticipate in in both sides of that coin? I think the worst fear is not just my own worst fear. I think that that's a fear that people in the region, in Israel and Lebanon and the Palestinian territories and especially neighboring countries, as well as Iran, are fearing, which is, you know, a continuation of this direct war between Israel and and Iran.

  
  And spillover all across the region, which is very possible, particularly given Israel's reach. And and given where all the different, you know, militias and proxies that Iran supports are located, be it Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and, of course, you know, the crown jewel, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. And so we're just going to see the worst case scenario, looks like a more intense regional war where more people will will be impacted.

  
  And I think, you know, the greatest hope is that diplomacy continues and that and I know that this administration, you know, the Biden administration has been basically going at it nonstop. But it's important at this point to recognize where we're at, where we were last year. And or even early January, where all of us were talking about some sort of cease fire proposal that both Hamas and Israel had agreed to or at least in principle.

  
  And, you know, military operations winding down in Gaza and look at where we are today. All of us who have been, you know, working on this for the last year were very much worried about this worst case scenario unfolding. And we're very, very close to that. And I think, you know, we can no longer say we need we need to avert a regional war because I think we are there.

  But how worse will it get is, I think, where all the fear and anxiety is. The greatest hope right now, again, is for diplomacy to continue, for cease fire proposals to move forward. And for those who have been speaking up against this war, for, you know, on behalf of the hostages and their families that have been protesting nonstop in Israel and others, you know, across the region who also want the the bombings and the strikes to just stop.

  
  Those are the ones who want to return to their homes. If if their homes are, you know, there, whether it's in Gaza or Lebanon. And similarly in Israel and the northern part where over 75,000 people are have been displaced. So so again, it's the hope is to to to see diplomacy and and some sort of political process reining in and and and stopping the conflict.

  
  Well, it's often difficult to find hope in dark times, but we have to keep on trying. Right. Keep hope alive. Keep on believing that diplomacy can work because the alternative is not acceptable. Thank you. You know, one way that we get there is deeper understanding and your work continues to contribute to that. So thanks, Marissa, for today and for your ongoing efforts.

  Thank you so much. Our guest has been Marissa Ackerman, the director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. We hope you enjoyed this edition of Wilson Center now and that you'll join us again soon. Until then, for all of us at the center. I'm John Milewski. Thanks for your time and interest.