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The Chinese Communist Party: Bent, But Not Broken

Bruce Dickson, Woodrow Wilson Fellow and professor of political science and international affairs, The George Washington University; Cheng Li, professor of government, Hamilton College and visiting fellow, the Brookings Institution; Melanie Manion, professor of political science and public affairs, University of Wisconsin; Yan Sun, professor of political science, City University of New York Graduate Center and Queens College

Date & Time

Wednesday
Apr. 25, 2007
3:30pm – 5:30pm ET

Overview

All speakers agreed that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is caught in a contradiction: it needs economic growth to sustain its legitimacy, but this very growth creates problems such as corruption and environmental degradation which are difficult to control. The Party is paying more attention to such problems, but thus far the results are mixed.

Bruce Dickson of George Washington University (and a Woodrow Wilson Fellow) noted it has been a mainstay of U.S. policy toward China that with increased economic interaction and wider economic ties, China would move further and further toward democracy. However, stated Dickson, so far this has not happened in China. The CCP is still very much in control, and its monopoly on political power does not appear threatened.

One reason is that the CCP has been fairly successful in co-opting the new business elites. Approximately 35-40 percent of private entrepreneurs are Party members, the so-called "Red Capitalists." Most had started out as Party members, but a growing number have their origins as entrepreneurs. The Party seeks big businessmen, from large-scale enterprises. It also seeks younger people, preferably under 35, those who are better educated, and prefers men over women. While only 6 percent of the Chinese population are Party members, over half of the private entrepreneurs are members, or want to be.

The social problems facing the Party include corruption, rising inequality and pollution. These social problems have generated growing numbers of large protests in recent years. It is important to note, said Dickson, that protestors at the local level generally see the central government as their allies, those who have the power to redress their wrongs. The top leadership is trying to redress these wrongs, but on the other hand, there is a "strong-arm" aspect to its rule. Local police forces are being strengthened, and it is more difficult to petition higher levels over grievances. The top leadership wants a "harmonious society," but it also values stability above all.

Yan Sun of the City University of New York focused her discussion on the personnel system of the CCP. She said that one of the most important areas of Party activity is in human resources, that is, who to select, who to promote, etc. Here too corruption is one of the most important problems. Sun noted that some scholars argue that the present Party personnel reforms are adequate, while others argue they have made things worse. She herself feels the results are mixed. Sun stated that there have been seven personnel directives since 1995 aimed at reform. On paper, these directives have led to a more open selection system. For example, there is now public announcement of positions available. In addition, voting to select a candidate is now done by a show of hands; before it was done in secret. Sun concluded that although corruption is perhaps inevitable in a personnel system that is, at the end of the day, non-competitive, she added that the severity of the corruption is not the same throughout the country. At the center, in the ministries, she explained, it is very hard for corruption to flourish, but as you move farther from the capital and the coastal areas, toward the interior and the poorer regions, corruption increases.

Melanie Manion of the University of Wisconsin (Madison) discussed the relationship between the Party congresses and their selection of local government leaders. She said the top leaders of the Party are aware that their rule is undermined by poor leaders, and therefore it is of the utmost importance to strive for excellence. It is now policy to strengthen the CCP by empowering local legislatures, known as people's congresses, to monitor government leadership at the local level. People's congress delegates are elected to five-year terms, and one of their main tasks is to elect government leaders, most of whom are nominated by the Party.

The policy to empower local Party congresses was introduced in 1995. Previously, these congresses would rubber-stamp Party nominees for government posts in uncontested elections. There was no accountability. Since the reforms of 1995, thousands of Party candidates have lost local elections. The Party is tolerant of this process, because if its candidate loses, presumably the official elected is more competent. Also, if its candidate wins, that validates the ability of the winner. While the 1995 law mandates contestation, there is a loophole for the most senior positions. This process is also intended as a way for central leaders to monitor local politics: if too many official nominees lose, it would indicate they had not been properly vetted by the local party committees.

Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution, in a presentation entitled "After Hu, Who?," spoke of the future leadership of the CCP. The upcoming 17th Party Congress this fall, he said, will be the most important event in China this year. At least half of the top leadership will be retiring, so the 17th Congress will yield significant clues as to who will take over from the leadership of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao when they retire five years from now. Li stated there are two main factions in China today. Members of the first faction, which he called the populist coalition, have backgrounds in the youth league or other areas as Party functionaries, and hail from rural grassroots areas and have also been provincial leaders. Hu and Wen are from this faction. The second faction is known as the Shanghai Group or elitist faction. They are from urban areas, the coastal region, children of the leadership (princelings), foreign educated returnees, and entrepreneurs.

The populist faction is more concerned with social cohesion, focused on more balanced regional development. It pays more attention to peasants, urban migrants and those who are falling behind as China moves forward economically. The elitist faction is more concerned with sustaining economic development, whatever the social or environmental costs. Li also made the point that in many ways, the two factions complement each other. They certainly need each other, he said, and he did not think the rivalry between them would lead to irreconcilable conflict.

Drafted by Mark Mohr, Asia Program Associate
Robert M. Hathaway, Director, Asia Program. Ph: (202) 691-4020

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