The History of the Future of Syria

Christian Sahner, author of Among the Ruins: Syria Past and Present, discussed the Syrian crisis from a historical perspective, framed by the content of his book.

On October 6, 2014 the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center held a meeting “A History of the Future of Syria” with Sahner. Haleh Esfandiari, Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center, moderated the event.

Sahner began by explaining that he had two main goals in mind when writing his book, Among the Ruins. His first goal was to expose readers to the deep, rich history of Syria, which has been neglected in light of recent events in the country. His second goal was to offer general readers a sense of Syria’s beauty before it was destroyed. Sahner continued by outlining what he views as the three main phases of the Syrian conflict. The first phase was the civil war, where the regime of President Bashar al-Assad cracked down on the opposition, turning a struggle that began peacefully and within civil society into a violent and sectarian conflict. The second phase was the evolution of the conflict into a regional proxy war, characterized by the Shi’ite forces of Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias supporting Assad against Sunni rebels backed by Persian Gulf countries, the Muslim Brotherhood, and al-Qaeda. The third phase is a renewed global Cold War that has emerged between Russia and the West, which is playing out in Syria.

Addressing ISIS, Sahner explained that what sets the extremist group apart from other jihadists is its main goal of reestablishing the caliphate, its desire to hold territory, and the fact that it was born out of the Syrian civil war but had not participated in it as a primary belligerent against the Assad regime. He continued by describing how there are six different causes for the emergence of ISIS: the U.S. occupation of Iraq, the history of despotism in the region, Iran’s sectarian attitudes and policies, Gulf Salafism, the desire to return to a golden era of Islam, and the group’s strategy of committing brutal acts.

He also believes that President Obama has a difficult road ahead; not only is America unclear about its mission with regard to ISIS, but its military response will not be enough to destroy the extremist group. Sahner suggested that the shared interests of the countries that comprise the broad, regional coalition that has emerged in defiance to ISIS will not last long, because there are too many different actors with contrasting goals. He also believes that the international community will reluctantly start to engage with Assad and that regardless of who is elected president in 2016, he or she will not be as committed to ousting Assad from power. Sahner concluded by stating that ISIS has diverted the world’s attention away from the humanitarian tragedies of Syria and that the crisis has expedited the homogenization process of the Middle East that is leading to the disappearance of many different minority communities in the region.

During the question portion of the meeting, Sahner described how defeating ISIS will take a military solution, an ideological solution, and a social solution. Although ISIS is presently only exerting its influence in the region, he discussed how it has the potential to spread its jihad to Europe in the near future. Regarding what the Middle East will look like down the road, Sahner explained how de facto partitions are already forming and how the Kurds could take a chance and try to use the current situation to gain autonomy. He also suggested that temporary Syrian refugee camps could become permanent cities, similar to Palestinian refugee camps. On Iran’s role in the conflict, he discussed how it is the greatest supporter of Assad and that it views the struggle as an existential crisis that it must win.

By John Daniels, Middle East Program