Shibley Telhami: Poll on what Egyptians want now
A new poll on Egypt by Shibley Telhami, who holds the Sadat chair at the University of Maryland, surveyed public opinion across the Arab world’s most populous country. The survey’s key findings among respondents include:
• Voters use different criteria in their selection of presidential and parliamentary candidates.
• Among the dozen presidential candidates, Aboul Fotouh led with 32 percent, followed by Amr Moussa with 28 percent, then Ahmed Shafiq with 14 percent. Mohammed Morsi and Hamdeen Sabahi each received 8 percent support. (The poll ended on the day of Egypt’s first ever-presidential debate on May 10, and did not measure the debate’s impact.)
• 71 percent said the Muslim Brotherhood made a mistake in running a candidate after pledging not to run in the presidential race.
• Less than 10 percent of respondents said that the role of religion in politics is the most important factor in their voting in both the parliamentary and presidential elections, but 66 percent said they support making Sharia the basis of Egyptian law.
• At the same time, only 17 percent said that they favor literally applying Sharia, including the penal code, while 83 percent said they prefer applying the spirit of Sharia but with adaptation to modern times.
• On the role Islam should play in Egyptian politics, respondents were asked to choose from six models: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Tunisia, Malaysia, and Morocco. A majority chose Turkey (54 percent), followed by Saudi Arabia (32 percent).
• Asked to select the leader they admire most in the world (but outside Egypt), 63 percent identified Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan, while five percent each identified President Obama and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. But asked which leader they want their next president to look most like in an open question that did not exclude Egyptians, 35 percent identified Anwar Sadat, 26 percent Gamal Abdel Nasser—both former Egyptian presidents—while 15 percent identified Erdogan.
• The Muslim Brotherhood and the ultraconservative Salafis are both split internally over two Islamist candidates: Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh (a former Brotherhood leader) and Mohammed Morsi (the current Brotherhood leader).
• Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi may do better than polls predict (most putting him in third or fourth place in a field of a dozen candidates) because of the organization’s vast political machine.
• On the Camp David peace treaty with Israel, respondents were almost equally divided: 46 percent wanted Egypt maintain the peace treaty with Israel, while 44 percent wanted to cancel it. and another 10 percent would like to see the treaty amended. On prospects for a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, 55 percent indicated that they don’t believe this will ever happen, while only five percent said it will happen in the next five years. Another 40% said it is inevitable, but it will take more time.
• Attitudes toward the United States continue to be unfavorable—by 85 percent among those surveyed.
• On the U.S. presidency, 73 percent of respondents preferred Mitt Romney, while only 25 percent chose President Obama. The choice is more likely to be an expression of disappointment with Obama, since it is unlikely that most Egyptians know much about Romney. When Obama first came to office in 2009, even before his Cairo speech, Egyptian public opinion of Obama was more favorable than unfavorable.
The full report can be found here:
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2012/05/21-egyptian-election-poll-telhami