Tipping the Scales: The Decline of Mexico’s Opposition and the Unclear Future of Its Democracy 

Following her landslide victory, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is set to become North America’s first female president on October 1st. This election, the largest in Mexican history, was less a battle of ideological values—essential for a vibrant democracy—and more a referendum on the standing administration of President Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). While concerns about Mexico drifting towards autocracy are often overblown, the roots and seeming acceptance of the country’s surging authoritarianism often evade straightforward explanation. Analysts should not only consider how Sheinbaum might diverge from or align with AMLO but, more crucially for Mexico’s democratic future, dissect how the ruling coalition led by the Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional(Morena) maintains robust cohesion despite its notable political heterogeneity and lackluster governance. 

The broad support for Morena’s so-called “Fourth Transformation'' is best understood through the lens of the opposition’s frailties. The presidential candidacy of Xóchitl Gálvez, once seen as a formidable challenger, ultimately collapsed, rendering the opposition nearly unrecognizable as a political force. In contrast, despite a campaign marred by evasive and self-defeating tactics, Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) managed to consolidate itself as a third alternative in Mexican politics as votes were tallied. To be sure, AMLO’s adept manipulation of political discourse—from reviving Mexico’s 20th-century autocratic practice of el dedazo (handpicking successors) to illegally using his daily Mañanera briefings as platforms for influence—not only solidified his control over the electoral agenda but effectively shifted the political center of gravity to the left.  

Debates over just how free or unfair this electoral process was will continue for some time. In reality, however, AMLO’s “magician politics,” as coined by political scientist Adam Pzeworski, have already tarnished Mexico’s international credibility. This damage is further compounded by relentless attacks on the National Electoral Institute (INE) throughout his tenure. Yet, perhaps the most alarming indicator of the threat to Mexico’s democratic resilience is the lack of competition seen among traditional political parties, particularly the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and thePartido Acción Nacional(PAN), and within AMLO’s own Morena. Marcelo Ebrard’s run for Morena’s presidential nomination—constrained from the top—is especially illustrative. And yet, despite his contentious clash with Sheinbaum, the former foreign minister remains aligned and is now being lauded as the new secretary of economy. 

More pivotally, this election marked the first time since 1940 that the long-standing PRI did not present a partisan presidential candidate. Instead, its discredited leadership backed Gálvez, who, hitherto, was a fierce opponent of the PRI. It is key to note that the accelerated debacle of the PRI under Alejandro Moreno's leadership may precipitate its imminent cooptation, rendering the party insignificant. Accordingly, its leadership is widely perceived as a grotesque disaster. 

Moreover, the aftermath of this unprecedentedly long electoral process reveals a significant and seldom noted trend: all presidential candidates forged their careers in center-left politics. Indeed, just as in the mid-20th century, today there is no significant political coalition—neither within the incumbent movement nor the opposition—that challenges the extent of state intervention in policymaking and the economy. In sum, notwithstanding an electoral process plagued by irregularities, the opposition from the outset failed to shift the narrative away from AMLO’s dominance, unable to offer a viable alternative to Morena. 

Mexico’s democracy will persist as long as its citizens retain the ability to remove politicians from office. However, the abstentionism that resonated throughout the country underlines the limited display of political pluralism in this election cycle. Against this backdrop of voter disillusionment, Sheinbaum’s triumph, as Luis Carlos Ugalde recently expressed, “represents the biggest win of a presidential candidate in Mexican history.” This overwhelming support firmly establishes her popular and democratic mandate. 

Sheinbaum’s monumental victory encapsulates the deep frustration with Mexico’s slow and arduous transition to democracy, a process that ultimately has not delivered as once promised. Despite the formidable centralization of power now in the hands of the president-elect, it is a mistake to view Morena’s incipient political machinery as akin to the once hegemonic PRI. 

 In stark contrast to other autocratic models worldwide, the durability of Mexico’s emerging authoritarian regime remains brittle. Morena continues to function as a catch-all movement that has benefited from the dissolution of traditional political parties and an opposition lacking in vision and strategy. A key question remains: can Mexico’s fledgling democracy resist the pressures of hyper-centralized power, or will it succumb to a reborn authoritarianism?