Moscow has lost many allies and partners due to its war against Ukraine. Among the few countries it has grown closer to in the past three years is Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic and key regional player. However, Russia’s refusal to fully disclose information and accept responsibility for the December 25, 2024, crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet is now creating a rift between the two governments. 

Yet, despite the tensions, both sides have too much to lose from a lasting fallout. Russia relies on Azerbaijan for transport routes vital to its relations with Iran and the Persian Gulf, while Baku’s geopolitical pragmatism and shared strategic interests will likely push both countries toward reconciliation—though on terms that reflect Azerbaijan’s growing assertiveness. Whether they can overcome today’s strain remains to be seen, but this is a story worth watching. It offers a rare example of a regional power engaging with Moscow from a position of confidence and leverage, all against the backdrop of escalating tensions with other regional players and partners, including Armenia and Georgia.

Baku Raises the Stakes

In a new development following the crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan is gathering evidence for a potential lawsuit against Russia, likely to be filed at the International Court of Justice, drawing parallels to the flight MH17 case in 2014. Baku took action immediately after the release of a preliminary report by Kazakhstani and international investigators, which confirmed that the plane sustained damage over Russian territory from “external metal objects,” ruling out bird strikes or technical failures. While the report stops short of identifying the exact source of these objects, photos reveal fuselage punctures consistent with missile shrapnel.

On Thursday, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry announced that they had sent a diplomatic note to Russia terminating the activities of Russian House, an umbrella name for Russia’s official cultural institutions worldwide. This move effectively means shutting down the operations of Rossotrudnichestvo, Russia’s cultural and humanitarian agency, in Azerbaijan. Russia has officially confirmed receiving Azerbaijan’s diplomatic note. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that the situation surrounding the Russian House in Baku may be addressed at the highest level, potentially at a summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, highlighting the sensitivity of the matter.

The Azerbaijani government remains dissatisfied with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the December 25 tragedy. While Putin issued an apology, he described the crash as a “tragic incident” and expressed regret that it occurred in Russian airspace, without acknowledging any Russian responsibility for downing the aircraft. Subsequent statements from Russian authorities have failed to meet Baku’s demands for full accountability. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani investigators continue to uncover evidence of Russian involvement, including fragments of a Soviet-era Pantsir air defense missile found among the wreckage.

Baku’s decision to shut down Russian House signals Azerbaijan’s willingness to escalate tensions, taking a bolder stance toward Russia than most regional powers would dare. The move reflects growing frustration over what Azerbaijani officials see as Russia’s pattern of evasion and denial, particularly given Azerbaijan’s carefully balanced approach to Russia’s war against Ukraine—one that has allowed both sides to engage without fully aligning their positions.

Balancing Between Moscow and the West

Azerbaijan has consistently voiced support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, drawing parallels to its own experience with Armenian occupation in Karabakh—a conflict it recently resolved militarily, with Russia stepping back and withdrawing its peacekeeping forces. Baku has sent humanitarian aid, including medicine and food, and funded medical rehabilitation for Ukrainian children. While avoiding overt realignment, Azerbaijan has deepened its ties with the EU and Turkey, signaling a diversification away from Russia. At the same time, President Aliyev’s government has stopped short of labeling Russia an aggressor state and has refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow.

The incident may have a personal dimension, as Aliyev’s presidential plane was also airborne at the time of the crash. Upon learning about the accident, Aliyev turned his plane around while en route to Moscow for a regional summit. There are reports that his aircraft may have experienced GPS navigation issues.

“Of course, Aliyev expected Putin to call and offer a proper apology. What actually transpired angered him because he sees himself as Putin’s equal,” said Arif Yunusov from the Institute for Peace and Democracy, an Azerbaijani NGO based in the Netherlands, in an interview. “Trump now has the final say. Russia has weakened—losing Syria was a major blow, and in the East, the weak are not treated with much ceremony. That’s why Azerbaijani officials are now praising Trump and increasing pressure on Russia.” Azerbaijan’s leadership has been openly supportive of Trump’s return to power, viewing it as an opportunity to shift away from what they perceived as the Biden administration's pro-Armenian stance.

Why This Matters

Despite Baku’s frustration, from the Kremlin’s perspective issuing any apology was already a significant concession. Putin, however reluctantly, recognized that he could not treat the Azerbaijani leader as he does his European counterparts, whom he often regards with disdain. Typically, Moscow systematically evades accountability through strategic denials and blame-shifting, as seen in its handling of the downing of flight MH17 and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This pattern reflects a deliberate strategy to avoid legal responsibility, financial compensation, and geopolitical concessions.

Moscow and Baku will likely reach an agreement, as both have too much at stake to risk a complete rupture. While mutual suspicion and distrust will persist, the Kremlin relies on Azerbaijan as a key hub for sanctions-free trade through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which facilitates commerce with Iran, the Gulf nations, and India. In 2023 alone, Russian oil exports to Azerbaijan quadrupled. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has also been supplying gas to Azerbaijan’s domestic market, enabling Baku to fulfill and potentially expand its export commitments. 

Azerbaijan and Russia are unlikely to sever ties completely—economic interdependence and regional pragmatism will compel them to maintain cooperation. However, the fallout from the crash has exposed deep-seated tensions that will not be easily repaired. Baku’s willingness to challenge Moscow signals a shift in the regional balance of power, with Azerbaijan asserting itself as a more independent player. Baku is no longer willing to play the role of a deferential junior partner in Russia’s orbit. This is a key story for foreign policymakers, as it highlights Moscow’s pressure points and how regional powers are starting to challenge its influence.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.