40% of the world’s cocoa beans are produced in Côte d’Ivoire. In February, China opened that country’s largest cocoa factory. 

Nearly everyone loves chocolate. Increasingly, that includes those living in China, the world’s second most populous nation.  

China’s Chocolate Evolution  

Even though chocolate was introduced to China as far back as 1705, it wasn’t until the 1990s that its popularity began to take off thanks to a rising middle class and their view of chocolate as a symbol of modernity, sophistication, and wealth. In recent times, just as in the West, Chinese consumers have also turned to chocolate—especially dark chocolate—for its perceived health benefits. Seeing the potential in China’s consumer market, chocolate producers in both Europe and the US have created innovative recipes that appeal to Chinese tastes—recipes with flavor and texture combinations like Sichuan pepper and durian.  

This explosion in demand helped China become one of the world’s largest cocoa importers, surpassing traditional markets like the US and Europe. The world’s supply of cocoa, however, isn’t growing at the same rate.  

Cocoa Beans Grow on Trees 

Cacao trees, which produce the cocoa beans that are later transformed into chocolate, require very specific growing conditions to thrive. Nearly all of the production takes place within about 20 degrees of the equator. According to the National Confectioners’ Association, 75% is produced within an even narrower band, within 8 degrees on either side of the equator. Unfortunately, chronic underinvestment in cocoa and its related infrastructure, erratic weather patterns, and the spread of plant diseases like black pod and swollen shoot have weakened cocoa production and contributed to soaring prices. While West Africa has long been the most ideal region to source cocoa beans, producing approximately 70% of the world’s supply, no country has been a bigger producer than Côte d’Ivoire. Responsible for 57% of West Africa’s overall production (approximately 2 million metric tons per year), it has been the world’s number one cocoa producer since 1978. Unsurprisingly, the Ivorian economy has become increasingly dependent on the cocoa sector, representing 20% of Côte d’Ivoire’s gross domestic product (GDP).  

Seeing the Cacao Forest Through the Trees 

Côte d’Ivoire also exemplifies the challenges facing the world’s cocoa sector. A lack of reinvestment in cacao forests has reduced farmers’ ability to meet rising cocoa demand. Experts claim that, since 1960, 90% of Côte d’Ivoire’s rainforests have vanished because of cocoa cultivation (26% of the country’s total tree coverage). They predict that Côte d’Ivoire’s suitable growing areas will shrink by more than 50% by the 2050s. 

Cocoa’s supply challenges have caused significant financial impacts for producers and consumers. Companies like Hershey and Mondelez have struggled to absorb their rising costs, and major African processing facilities in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have either reduced their capacity or closed because they cannot afford to buy cocoa beans. The combination of supply chain disruptions and soaring demand has caused the price of chocolate to skyrocket. In December, one metric ton of cocoa sold for $12,906—more than three times the price in 2023. Chocolate bars in US grocery stores are now more than 10% more expensive than a year ago.  

Dealmaking to Meet Chinese Cocoa Demand into the Future 

Meanwhile, China has been proactively keeping up with increased domestic demand for chocolate products. In 2019, China signed a deal with Côte d’Ivoire to open two cocoa processing facilities in San Pedro and Abidjan, the country’s economic capital. Each plant can produce 50,000 metric tons of chocolate end-products each year and can store up to 300,000 tons. The Abidjan plant, built by the Chinese company China Light Industry Nanning Design Engineering, is now the largest cocoa bean processing facility in the entire country.  

Interestingly, when China loaned Côte d’Ivoire $200 million to build these two factories, it negotiated for part of the loan to be repaid in cocoa beans. Accordingly, 40% of the output from both plants will be dedicated to China. If cocoa prices continue to rise as most analysts expect, this loan arrangement will prove even more lucrative for China—and more expensive for Côte d’Ivoire. To be fair, source countries like Côte d’Ivoire have long seen most of the value of cocoa production go elsewhere. The International Cocoa Association estimates that just 6% of the chocolate market’s $133 billion value reaches cocoa-exporting countries.  

China’s chocolate story represents the growing influence of China and Chinese consumers in the world economy. The sheer size of the Chinese consumer market causes chocolate producers to adapt their product to meet Chinese tastes. Chinese investments in African markets provide badly needed capital for struggling producers, while also locking in the growing role that China will play in the years ahead. 

As we’ve noted in previous Stubborn Things, for more than 30 consecutive years, China’s foreign ministers have made their first overseas trip to places in Africa. With all that’s happening around the world these days, it would be hard to expect American cabinet members to begin their year in Africa. But more frequent visits by senior American officials might not be a bad idea. Not only because we love our chocolate bars… 

This blog was researched and drafted with assistance from Caitlyn Shrewsbury.