India: Economic Growth, Environmental Realities

In terms of air quality, 13 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in India. 

India is very much a country on the move. In 2023, it surpassed China to become the world's most populous country with more than 1.4 billion people. In 2022, it overtook the United Kingdom to become the world’s 5th largest economy, and appears on track to soon surpass Japan. India is also a global leader in digital public infrastructure, holding 46% of all global digital payments.

But as is so often the case, India’s surge has been accompanied by environmental challenges, particularly poor air quality. In its latest report, IQAir ranked India 5th worst in the world in air quality, behind Chad, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. IQAir’s analysis also found that India is home to 13 of the 20 most air-polluted cities. Last year, Byrnihat, an industrial municipality in northeast India, showed a PM2.5 level of 128.2—25 times the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommended annual limit of 5 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m³).

India isn’t solely responsible for its declining air quality. Its neighbors—Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal—all share a common airshed with India, and air pollution levels in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal are among the highest globally.

This type of particulate matter, which is smaller than one-20th of the width of a human hair, can cause a variety of negative health outcomes. The small size of many particulates means they sometimes penetrate deep into the lungs, even entering the bloodstream and increasing the risk of respiratory diseases, heart attacks, strokes, and cancer. A 2021 study published in The Lancet found that more than  1 million deaths in India are attributable to air pollution—air pollution that reduces life expectancy in the country by an estimated 5.2 years. UNICEF estimates that in 2019, more than 100,000 infants died in India from conditions related to their exposure to PM2.5.

There are a range of factors that have contributed to India’s air quality challenges, almost all linked to the country’s rapid economic and population growth. India’s industry, which has helped fuel the country’s rise, accounts for half of its elevated PM2.5 levels. Vehicle emissions, which government analysis suggests are made worse by the common practice of mixing diesel and regular gasoline with cheaper (and higher particulate) fuels, account for just over a quarter. The wood, dung, and dried leaves burned in traditional cooking stoves contribute another 2% to carbon dioxide emissions, about the same amount produced by aviation or shipping. According to a study published in Environmental Science & Technology, urban construction activities produce approximately 12% of PM2.5 levels. In New Delhi alone, dust from construction activities contributes up to 20% of the city’s total particulate matter.

India’s progress in improving air quality, albeit modest, hasn’t received nearly as much coverage. In 2019, India introduced its National Clean Air Program with a goal of reducing air pollution levels 20–30% in 100 cities by 2024.

Of course, India isn’t solely responsible for its declining air quality. Its neighbors—Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal—all share a common airshed with India, and air pollution levels in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal are among the highest globally. In 2024, all three countries far exceeded the World Health Organization's guideline of 5 µg/m³, ranging from 42.8µg/m³ to 78 µg/m³. Large urban centers like Lahore, Dhaka, and Kathmandu often experience toxic air quality, with PM2.5 levels reaching up to 947 µg/m³ in Lahore during severe smog events.

India’s air quality issues have received some attention in the global media due to their impact on international sporting events. During the 2023 Cricket World Cup, at least 20 of the 47 matches were played in what were determined to be unhealthy air quality conditions. Just one month after the tournament, New Delhi's local government banned all zonal sports events as the Air Quality Index reached the “severe plus” category—the highest alert level of air quality. 

India’s progress in improving air quality, albeit modest, hasn’t received nearly as much coverage. In 2019, India introduced its National Clean Air Program with a goal of reducing air pollution levels 20–30% in 100 cities by 2024. That plan was recently updated to achieve a 40% reduction by 2026. In 2021, IQAir reported a PM2.5 concentration in India of 58.1; in 2024, that number decreased to 50.6. 

India’s leaders have opened their eyes to its environmental challenges, and they are taking steps to overcome them.

The Indian government implemented several initiatives which make the foregoing improvements possible. In Delhi, local government introduced an odd-even traffic rule that reduced the amount of vehicle congestion, and the Badarpur Thermal Power Station, which was responsible for 80–90% of Delhi’s PM2.5, was shut down in 2018. The national government incentivized farmers to reduce the traditional practice of burning crop stubble to clear fields, though debate persists about the initiative’s efficacy. New no-till farming practices—such as planting wheat directly into unplowed soil with rice residues—reduced fuel usage and emissions. One clear area of improvement lies in ramped-up clean energy production and consumption, which has reduced (even if only modestly) reliance on dirty fuels that add to air pollution. As of January 20th, India’s total non-fossil fuel energy capacity reached 217.62 gigawatts—nearly half of its planned 2030 goal (just 1 gigawatt of energy can power 100 million LED lightbulbs.) 

While air pollution has declined on the national level, India still dominates global pollution rankings due to the persistent poor air quality in major cities. In other words, India’s remarkable economic growth has come with consequences for its environment and its citizens’ wellbeing. But it’s also true that India’s leaders have opened their eyes to its environmental challenges, and they are taking steps to overcome them. They are learning important lessons as time goes on—lessons that apply to many parts of the world…including North America.

This blog was researched and drafted with assistance from Marzia Zunino and Katherine Schauer. 

 

Environmental Change and Security Program

The Environmental Change and Security Program (ECSP) explores the connections between environmental change, health, and population dynamics and their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy.   Read more

Environmental Change and Security Program