As discussions about potential negotiations on the war in Ukraine gain momentum, Russian officials and public figures are responding—generally in positive ways. President Vladimir Putin has reportedly agreed to enter talks with the United States “immediately” following a phone call with the US President Donald Trump on February 12, 2025. But while the Kremlin signals openness to negotiations, its underlying position suggests little has changed in Russia’s fundamental approach to the war.

Russian officials and state media struck a triumphant tone on Thursday after President Donald Trump abandoned three years of US policy, announcing that he would likely meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to negotiate a peace deal in the nearly three-year war in Ukraine.
 

According to Putin, the key to achieving a lasting peace—not just a ceasefire—requires addressing the “root causes” of the conflict. However, the Kremlin defines these “root causes” as NATO’s eastward expansion, rather than Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. This narrative allows Moscow to deflect attention from its own aggression while reinforcing broader security demands. Russia is not seeking peace on Ukraine’s terms but rather a settlement that legitimizes its territorial gains and reaffirms its sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, Russian officials, including Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev, have outright dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal to exchange occupied Ukrainian territory for areas held by Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. This signals that Moscow, at this point, is unwilling to engage in territorial compromises that might weaken its claims over annexed regions, particularly those it has declared as “new Russian territories.”

Putin is assembling a team of veteran negotiators—including Yuriy Ushakov, Sergey Naryshkin, and Kirill Dmitriev—to lead talks with US representatives, Bloomberg reported Friday. The choice of these figures signals that Moscow views negotiations not as a path to genuine compromise, but as another means to advance its geopolitical objectives. Ushakov, a seasoned diplomat, and Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, are deeply embedded in the country’s security establishment. Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and a key player in economic policy, will likely focus on securing sanctions relief and Western economic concessions.

Kremlin insiders view the upcoming negotiations as far more than just a settlement over Ukraine. “Based on Trump’s statements after his conversation with the Russian president, the stakes in dealing with Russia—and his intentions—go well beyond Ukraine,” wrote Alexei Pushkov, a pro-Putin foreign policy expert and MP, on social media. “Trump is not fixated on Ukraine. In this respect, he resembles Kennedy and Nixon, who understood the bigger picture and reached crucial agreements with Moscow that prevented nuclear war.” 

Crucially, the Kremlin does not view Ukraine as its primary negotiating partner. In Moscow’s eyes, the war is a confrontation between Russia and the West, primarily the United States, with Ukraine playing a secondary role. This approach aligns with longstanding Russian narratives that deny Ukraine full sovereignty, portraying it instead as a Western proxy. It also suggests that any agreement Russia seeks will likely come in the form of a US-brokered settlement rather than direct negotiations with Kyiv.

Public sentiment in Russia reflects this complex dynamic. While polling indicates that 54 percent of Russians support starting negotiations, 71 percent oppose making any concessions to Ukraine. Majorities reject the idea of returning annexed territories or allowing Ukraine to join NATO, signaling that the Russian government faces little domestic pressure to offer meaningful compromises. These attitudes reinforce Putin’s belief that he can outlast Ukraine and its Western backers through sheer attrition. If war fatigue grows in Kyiv and among Western capitals, the Kremlin likely expects support for Ukraine to erode, leading to a deal more favorable to Russia’s interests.

Russian state media have embraced Trump’s announcement as a validation of Moscow’s long-standing claim that the war is a broader conflict between Russia and the West, rather than just Russia and Ukraine. Pro-government outlets are portraying the prospect of negotiations as a clear victory for the Kremlin. “Zelensky is panic-stricken: Trump is preparing to gut Ukraine like a herring,” declares Moskovsky Komsomolets, a popular tabloid. “Putin has broken through the ‘iron curtain’ the West tried to impose on Russia,” writes Ura.ru, a regional pro-government outlet. “Putin has won a diplomatic victory. The whole world is discussing Trump’s phone conversation with the Russian president,” adds the loyal web publication Lenta.ru.

Some pro-Putin analysts see a long-term US strategy aimed at driving a wedge between Russia and China behind Washington’s push to end the war. “Trump’s aspirations to halt the ‘special military operation’ may be driven by a broader goal—to weaken future ties between China and Russia,” said Sergey Karaganov, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and a vocal advocate of Russia’s preemptive nuclear use.

“It’s a rational calculation,” Karaganov added. “But whether he can actually alienate Russia and China is another question. It’s also unclear how committed he is to improving relations with Russia. Right now, Trump is just breaking things. We’ll see how he responds when he faces domestic resistance and doesn’t get the quick results he expects. This is just the beginning of the process.”

For now, Russia’s official and pro-government messaging suggests that it is preparing for negotiations while maintaining its maximalist objectives. Putin’s strategy hinges on exploiting divisions in the West, prolonging the war until Ukrainian resistance weakens, and securing a settlement that cements Russia’s territorial gains. As talks take shape, the fundamental question remains whether negotiations will be a step toward genuine conflict resolution or merely the latest battlefield where Moscow seeks to impose its will.


The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.